Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035

Liu Xiaodan; Li Lei; Zhang Hong; Xue Wanlai; Liu Kexuan; Xue Chenwang

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026

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Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035

- Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 45, Issue 1, Pages: 244-253(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京市水科学技术研究院流域水环境与生态技术北京市重点实验室,北京,100048
  2. 中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京,100085
  3. 北京市密云水库管理处,北京,101512
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026
  CLC： X87;F301.2
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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Liu Xiaodan, Li Lei, Zhang Hong, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 244-253.
DOI：

Liu Xiaodan, Li Lei, Zhang Hong, et al. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Miyun Reservoir basin during 1985—2035[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2025, 45(1): 244-253. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2025.01.026.

摘要

[目的

]

开展1985—2035年密云水库流域生态系统碳储量时空演替格局与预测研究，为流域“双碳”目标下山水林田湖草沙一体化保护修复和流域生态补偿标准优化提供科学依据。[方法

]

采用InVEST-PLUS模型对该流域1985—2020年碳储量时空演变格局进行分析，并预测2035年3种情景(自然发展、耕地保护、生态保护)下的碳储量变化趋势。[结果

]

①1985—2020年，密云水库流域生态系统碳储量呈现持续增长趋势，35 a间碳储量增加2.35×10

t，其中贡献程度最大的为林地，其次为草地和耕地，共占总碳储量约98%。②2035年，3种模拟情景下流域碳储量仍均趋于增长，相对来说在生态保护情景下，由于林地面积增长较多，导致碳储量保持较高水平。③流域碳储量呈现出“中南部高，西部、东北低”的空间格局，中南部对应流域山区地貌，为水源涵养核心区域，森林覆盖率较高，而西部、东北部主要分布草地、耕地及城镇建设用地等，相对碳储量偏低。[结论

]

碳储量与土地利用空间格局具有一致性，可通过生态建设增加林草地、控制林地转出及合理控制建设用地扩张来促进生态系统碳储量巩固与提升。

Abstract

[Objective] Spatial and temporal succession patterns and predictions of ecosystem carbon storage in the Miyun Reservoir basin from 1985 to 2035 were conducted to provide a scientific basis for the integrated protection and restoration of mountains

rivers

forests

fields

lakes

grasslands

and sands and the optimization of ecological compensation standards under the goal of “double carbon” in the basin. [Methods] The InVEST-PLUS model was used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of carbon storage in the basin during 1985—2020

and the changing trend of carbon storage under three scenarios (natural development

cultivated land protection

and ecological protection) in 2035 was predicted. [Results] ① During 1985—2020

the ecosystem carbon storage of Miyun Reservoir basin showed a continuous growth trend

and the carbon storage increased by 4.03×107 t in 35 years. The largest contributors to carbon storage were forest land

grassland

and cultivated land

which accounted for approximately 98% of the total carbon storage. ② In 2035

the carbon storage of the basin will tend to increase under the three simulation scenarios. In the protection scenario

owing to the increase in forestland area

carbon storage remains at a high level. ③ Carbon storage in the basin showed a spatial pattern of 'higher in the south-central part and lower in the west and northeast’. The south-central part corresponds to the mountainous landform of the basin

which was the core area of water conservation

and the forest coverage rate was higher

while the west and northeast were mainly distributed in grassland

cultivated land

and urban construction land

with relatively lower carbon storage. [Conclusion] Carbon storage is consistent with the spatial pattern of land use. The consolidation and improvement of ecosystem carbon storage can be promoted by increasing forests and grasslands through ecological construction

controlling the transfer of forest land

and reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land.

关键词

Keywords

references

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