Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain

Wu Yingga; Pu Wanping; Dong Jihong

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041

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Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain

- Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 44, Issue 5, Pages: 392-408(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏,徐州,221116
  2. 矿山生态修复教育部工程研究中心,江苏,徐州,221116
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041
  CLC： X321
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
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Wu Yingga, Pu Wanping, Dong Jihong. Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 392-408.
DOI：

Wu Yingga, Pu Wanping, Dong Jihong. Shifts of Land Use Gravity Centers and Carbon Accounting Scenario Simulation in Chengdu Plain[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(5): 392-408. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.05.041.

摘要

[目的

]

明晰成都平原土地利用重心迁移和碳排放变化趋势，探究土地利用碳排放的影响因素，为成都平原低碳发展提供理论与数据支持。[方法

]

基于多源数据，采用重心模型和IPCC碳排放系数法明确成都平原2006—2022年土地利用重心变化趋势和碳排放，运用偏最小二乘法(PLS)回归分析与对数平均迪氏指数分解(LMDI)模型探究耕地碳排放和建设用地碳排放的主要影响因素，并使用斑块生成土地利用模拟模型(PLUS)模拟未来土地利用格局与碳排放。[结果

]

①在土地利用类型方面，耕地、水域、建设用地和其他及未利用地重心分别向东北方向移动4.23，5.46，8.44和31.58 km，林地与草地向东南方向移动11.12和3.41 km。在主要粮食作物方面，水稻与玉米重心向东北方向分别移动15.47和7.52 km，小麦向西南方向移动17.77 km。②2006—2022年，成都平原33个县域土地利用碳排放量均呈上升态势，共增加1.36×10

t，碳汇持续下降，共减少5.68×10

t。③自然情景、碳增汇情景和碳减排情景下，土地利用碳排放分别比2022年减少5.39×10

，3.47×10

t和4.53×10

t。[结论

]

研究期间，成都平原耕地流失严重，主要流转为成都平原中部的建设用地和龙门山脉、龙泉山脉与乐山市内的林地，未来需要加强对该区域的耕地保护，33个县域土地利用碳排放上升趋势明显且主要影响因素差异较大，需因地制宜推行减源办法与增汇路径。

Abstract

[Objective] The shifts of land use gravity centers and carbon emission change and the influencing factors of land-use carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain were analyzed to provide theoretical and data support for the low-carbon development of the area. [Methods] Based on multi-source data

the barycenter model and IPCC carbon emission coefficient method were used to elucidate the changes in the land use gravity centers and carbon emissions in the Chengdu Plain from 2006 to 2022. Partial least squares regression analysis and the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) model were used to explore the primary factors influencing cultivated and construction land carbon emissions. A patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to simulate future land use patterns and carbon emissions. [Results] ① In terms of land use types

the gravity centers of cultivated land

water area

construction land

and unused land shifted 4.23

5.46

8.44 km

and 31.58 km to the northeast

respectively

and forest land and grassland shifted 11.12 km and 3.41 km to the southeast. The gravity centers of major food crops

rice and corn

moved 15.47 km and 7.52 km to the northeast

respectively

whereas that of wheat moved 17.77 km to the southwest. ② From 2006 to 2022

the land use carbon emissions of 33 counties in the Chengdu Plain showed an upward trend

with a total increase of 1.36×107 tons; and the carbon sinks continued to decline

with a total reduction of 5.68×105 tons. ③ Under the natural

carbon sink

and carbon emission reduction scenarios

the carbon emissions from land use reduced by 5.39×105

3.47×105

4.53×105 tons

respectively

comparing with those in 2022. [Conclusion] During the study period

a significant loss of cultivated land was observed in the Chengdu Plain; most of it was converted to construction land in the central part of the Chengdu Plain and forest land in the Longmen Mountains

Longquan Mountains

and Leshan City. In the future

the protection of cultivated land should be strengthened necessary. Carbon emissions from land use in 33 counties showed an obvious rising trend; however

the primary influencing factors are different. Therefore

source reduction and sequestration measure should be implemented according to local conditions.

关键词

Keywords

references

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