Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Countermeasures in Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone in China

Cao Haoran; Meng Mei

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.040

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Countermeasures in Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone in China

- Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Countermeasures in Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone in China
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 44, Issue 4, Pages: 394-404(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  新疆农业大学公共管理学院(法学院),新疆,乌鲁木齐,830002
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.040
  CLC： F323.211
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Cao Haoran, Meng Mei. Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Countermeasures in Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone in China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(4): 394-404.
DOI：

Cao Haoran, Meng Mei. Spatio-temporal Evolution of Cultivated Land Pressure and Its Countermeasures in Northern Agro-pastoral Ecotone in China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(4): 394-404. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.04.040.

摘要

[目的] 研究中国北方农牧交错带耕地压力时空演变状况及空间分异状况，为北方农牧交错带未来粮食安全发展战略布局提供决策参考。[方法] 基于修正的耕地压力指数模型分析北方农牧交错带2000—2023年耕地资源状况，并细分研究区域，分析耕地压力时空发展态势，利用预测模型测算耕地压力未来变化状况，最后提出相应对策建议。[结果] ①北方农牧交错带耕地压力总体上升，在时间序列上呈现“W”形变化；空间格局呈现“整体警戒，局部平稳”的态势，压力重心随时间总体向西南迁移； ②区域耕地压力异质性呈逐渐分异趋势，受区域功能及产业结构发展的影响，时间格局上呈现异质性逐渐明显的趋势，空间格局分布上呈现出“长城沿线沙化地区长期稳定，黄土丘陵沟壑地区逐渐上升，京津冀水源涵养地区平缓下降”的特征； ③未来7 a北方农牧交错带耕地压力呈现整体升高态势，对粮食安全及区域发展构成一定威胁，需引起有关部门的保护及重视。[结论] 北方农牧交错带耕地压力总体呈上升趋势，且区域内差异逐渐明显，未来应提高全域耕地地力及环境整治能力，开展跨区域耕地保护补偿机制。

Abstract

[Objective] The spatio-temporal evolution and spatial differentiation of cultivated land pressure in the agro-pastoral ecotone of Northern China was analysed

in order to provide reference for the future strategic layout of food security development in this ecotone in Northern China. [Methods] The status of cultivated land resources in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone was analysed between 2000 and 2023 using the modified cultivated land pressure index mode. Thereafter

the study area was subdivided

and the spatiotemporal development trend of cultivated land pressure was analysed. The future change in cultivated land pressure was calculated using the prediction model

and corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were proposed. [Results] ① In general

the cultivated land pressure in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone increased

showing a “W” shape change in time series. The spatial pattern showed an “overall” alert and local stable situation

and the pressure centre of gravity migrated towards the southwest with time. ② The heterogeneity of regional cultivated land pressure showed a gradual trend of differentiation. Further

the heterogeneity was influenced by the development of regional functions and industrial structure and showed a gradual but evident trend in the time pattern. The spatial pattern distribution showed that the desertification area along the Great Wall was stable for a long time

the loess hilly gully area was gradually rising

and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei water conservation area was gently declining. In the next 7 years

the pressure of cultivated land in the northern agricultural and pastoral ecotone will show an overall increase

posing a certain threat to food security and regional development

which needs to be protected and paid attention to by relevant departments. [Conclusion] The cultivated land pressure in the northern agro-pastoral ecotone zone is on the rise in general

and the regional differences are gradually obvious. In the future

it is necessary to improve the land fertility and environmental political ability of the whole cultivated land

and carry out the compensation mechanism of cross-regional cultivated land protection.

关键词

Keywords

references

吴群.中国耕地保护的体制与政策研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2011. Wu Qun. Research on the System and Policy of Cultivated Land Protection in China [M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2011.

李玉平,蔡运龙.浙江省耕地变化与粮食安全的分析及预测[J].长江流域资源与环境,2007,16(4):466-470. Li Yuping, Cai Yunlong. Analysis and prediction of cropland change and grain security in Zhejiang Province [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2007,16(4):466-470.

Allan W. Studies in African Land Usage in Northern Rhodesia, Rhodes Livingstone Papers and No.15[M]. Cape Town: Oxford University Press, 1949.

Allan W. The African husbandman [M]. New York: Barnes & Noble,1965.

UNESCO & FAO. Carrying Capacity Assessment with a Pilot Study of Kenya: A Resource Accounting Methodology for Exploring National Options for Sustainable Development [R]. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1985.

郑海霞,封志明.中国耕地总量动态平衡的数量和质量分析[J].资源科学,2003,25(5):33-39. Zheng Haixia, Feng Zhiming. The quantity and quality analysis on dynamic equilibrium of the total cultivated land in China [J]. Resources Science, 2003,25(5):33-39.

蔡运龙,傅泽强,戴尔阜.区域最小人均耕地面积与耕地资源调控[J].地理学报,2002,57(2):127-134. Cai Yunlong, Fu Zeqiang, Dai Erfu. The minimum area per capita of cultivated land and its implication for the optimization of land resource allocation [J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2002,57(2):127-134.

刘运伟.典型山区耕地面积与粮食产量时空格局分析: 以四川省凉山州为例[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(5):198-203. Liu Yunwei. Spatiotemporal characteristics of cultivated land and grain output in the typical mountain areas: A case study of Liangshan prefecture, Sichuan Province [J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2014,21(5):198-203.

邓祥征,梁立,廖晓勇,等.国际粮食贸易影响下东北黑土地生产压力变化与保护策略[J].自然资源学报,2022,37(9):2209-2217. Deng Xiangzheng, Liang Li, Liao Xiaoyong, et al. Research on changes in grain production pressure and protection strategies in the black soil region of Northeast China under the influence of international grain trade [J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2022,37(9):2209-2217.

罗翔,罗静,张路.耕地压力与中国城镇化: 基于地理差异的实证研究[J].中国人口科学,2015(4) 47-59. Luo Xiang, Luo Jing, Zhang Lu. Farmland pressure and China’s urbanisation: An empirical study with the view of geographical differences [J]. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2015(4):47-59.

杨春来,夏斌.1999—2011年梅州市耕地压力与影响因素分析[J].广东农业科学,2013,40(21):233-236. Yang Chunlai, Xia Bin. Analysis on cultivated land pressure and influence factors in Meizhou City from 1999 to 2011[J]. Guangdong Agricultural Sciences, 2013,40(21):233-236.

杨青.云南省耕地压力测算及其时空差异和影响因素分析[D].云南昆明:云南财经大学,2017. Yang Qing. Spatial differences and influences of cultivated land pressure in Yunnan Province [D]. Kunming, Yunnan: Yunnan University of Finance and Economics, 2016.

杨人豪,杨庆媛,陈伊多,等.基于耕地—粮食—人口系统的休耕区域耕地压力时空演变及预测: 以河北省为例[J].干旱地区农业研究,2018,36(3):270-278. Yang Renhao, Yang Qingyuan, Chen Yiduo, et al. Cultivated area-food-population system in land fallow area and analysis of spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of cultivated land index: A Case Study of Hebei Province [J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas, 2018,36(3):270-278.

付士波,朱前涛,杜茎深.黑河中游地区内陆河流域耕地压力动态分析与预测[J].南方农业,2014,8(12):121-124. Fu Shibo, Zhu Qiantao, Du Jingshen. Dynamic analysis and prediction of cultivated land pressure in the middle reaches of Heihe River [J]. South China Agriculture, 2014,8(12):121-124.

张慧,王洋.中国耕地压力的空间分异及社会经济因素影响: 基于342个地级行政区的面板数据[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):731-742. Zhang Hui, Wang Yang. Spatial differentiation of cropland pressure and its socio-economic factors in China based on panel data of 342 prefectural-level units [J]. Geographical Research, 2017,36(4):731-742.

任桂镇,赵先贵,巢世军,等.基于耕地生态压力指数的中国耕地压力时空差异分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2008,22(10):37-41. Ren Guizhen, Zhao Xiangui, Chao Shijun, et al. Temporal-spatial analysis of cultivated land pressure in China based on the ecological tension indexes of cultivated land [J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2008,22(10):37-41.

孙丽娜.1980—2015年间吉林省耕地利用变化对耕地压力的影响研究[J].资源与生态学报,2023,14(3):581-590. Sun Lina. Impact of cultivated land-use change on the cultivated land pressure in Jilin Province of China from 1980 to 2015[J]. Journal of Resources and Ecology, 2023,14(3):581-590.

成六三,时伟宇.退耕对县域耕地压力效应的影响分析研究: 以武隆县为例[J].中国农业资源与区划,2018,39(3):201-206. Cheng Liusan, Shi Weiyu. Effects of land conversion projects on the land pressure: Taking Wulong County as acase [J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2018,39(3):201-206.

农业部.农业部关于北方农牧交错带农业结构调整的指导意见[J].中华人民共和国农业部公报,2016(12):7-12. Ministry of Agriculture. Guiding opinions of the Ministry of Agriculture on the adjustment of agricultural structure in the northern farming-pastoral ecotone [J].Gazette of the Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China, 2016(12):7-12.

汪芳甜.北方农牧交错带退耕还林生态效应评价: 以乌兰察布市为例[D].北京:中国农业大学,2018. Wang Fangtian. Evaluation of ecological effects for the grain for green project in the farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China: A case study in the Ulanqab City [D]. Beijing: China Agricultural University, 2018.

朱红波,张安录.中国耕地压力指数时空规律分析[J].资源科学,2007,29(2):104-108. Zhu Hongbo, Zhang Anlu. Analyzing temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of pressure index of cultivated land in China [J]. Resources Science, 2007,29(2):104-108.

张利娅.中国粮食自给率研究[D].河南郑州:河南农业大学,2006. Zhang Liya. Studies on food self-sufficient rate of China [D]. Zhengzhou, Henan: Henan Agricultural University, 2006.

崔宁波,王胜男.粮食安全背景下东北典型黑土区耕地压力动态变化及趋势分析[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(21):220-230. Cui Ningbo, Wang Shengnan. Dynamic change and trend analysis of cultivated land pressure in typical black soil areas of Northeast China under food security [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2022,38(21):220-230.

董婷婷,张增祥,钱凤魁.中国北方农牧交错带耕地动态变化的遥感监测[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(6):78-82. Dong Tingting, Zhang Zengxiang, Qian Fengkui. Dynamic change monitoring of cultivated land in a typical farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China by remote sensing [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2007,23(6):78-82.

淳阳,朱晚秋,潘洪义,等.重心转移视角下新型城镇化与生态足迹时空差异及其耦合关系研究: 以四川省为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(2): 306-317. Chun Yang, Zhu Wanqiu, Pan Hongyi, et al. Spatio-temporal differences and coupling relationship between new urbanization and ecological footprint from the perspective of gravity transfer: A case study of Sichuan Province [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2018,27(2):306-317.

张玥,代亚强,陈媛媛,等.中国耕地低碳利用效率时空演变及其驱动因素[J].农业工程学报,2022,38(8):234-243. Zhang Yue, Dai Yaqiang, Chen Yuanyuan, et al. Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of low-carbon use efficiency of cultivated land in China [J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering, 2022,38(8):234-243.

范中洲,赵羿,周宁,等.基于灰色BP神经网络组合模型的水上交通事故数预测[J].安全与环境学报,2020,20(3):857-861. Fan Zhongzhou, Zhao Yi, Zhou Ning, et al. Integrated model for forecasting waterway traffic accidents based on the Gray-BP neural network [J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2020,20(3):857-861.

崔宁波,王婷,巴雪真,等.东北黑土区耕地生态承载力动态评价及预测分析[J].农业经济与管理,2023(3):37-47. Cui Ningbo, Wang Ting, Ba Xuezhen, et al. Dynamic evaluation and prediction analysis of cultivated land ecological carrying capacity in black soil region of Northeast China [J]. Agricultural Economics and Management, 2023(3):37-47.

李斌,许仕荣,柏光明,等.灰色—神经网络组合模型预测城市用水量[J].中国给水排水,2002,18(2):66-68. Li Bin, Xu Shirong, Bai Guangming, et al. Prediction of urban water consumption by gray-neural network model [J]. China Water & Wastewater, 2002,18(2):66-68.

刘孟竹,王彦芳,裴宏伟.退耕还林(草)背景下中国北方农牧交错带土地利用及碳储量变化[J].中国沙漠,2021,41(1):174-182. Liu Mengzhu, Wang Yanfang, Pei Hongwei. The changes of land use and carbon storage in the northern farming-pastoral ecotone under the background of returning farmland to forest(grass) [J]. Journal of Desert Research, 2021,41(1):174-182.

孔德明,郝丽莎,夏四友,等.粮食单产视角下中国北方农牧交错带粮食安全研究[J].干旱区地理,2023,46(5):782-792. Kong Deming, Hao Lisha, Xia Siyou, et al. Food security in the argo-pastoral ecotone of Northern China from the perspective of grain yield [J]. Arid Land Geography, 2023,46(5):782-792.

王玫,王立源.京津冀水源生态涵养区建设面临的困境及应对措施[J].环境保护,2015,43(16):40-43. Wang Mei, Wang Liyuan. Difficulties and measures in the construction of water ecological conservation areas in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei [J]. Environmental Protection, 2015,43(16):40-43.

张新生,赵梦旭,王小完.尾段残差修正GM(1,1)模型在管道腐蚀预测中的应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2017,27(1):65-70. Zhang Xinsheng, Zhao Mengxu, Wang Xiaowan. Application of modified empennage residual error GM(1,1) model in prediction of pipeline corrosion [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017,27(1):65-70.

程晓瑜,盖微微,杨振民.陕西省耕地压力时空演变及驱动因素研究[J].中国农机化学报,2022,43(9):165-173. Cheng Xiaoyu, Gai Weiwei, Yang Zhenmin. Spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of cultivated land pressure in Shaanxi Province [J]. Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization, 2022,43(9):165-173.

Views

200

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency of cultivated land use and food security in Fenhe River basin

Correlation Analysis of Cultivated Land Use Intensity and Food Security Along Yangtze River in Anhui Province

Simulating Fallow Land at Regional Scale:Size and Spatial Distribution

Effects of Grain for Green Project on Food Security on Loess Plateau

Prediction of Soil Erosion Modulus Based on Logistic Regression and RBF Neural Network

Related Author

Jian Kai

Wang Chao

Liu Huancai

Wang Mengzhu

Li Man

LU Cheng-shu

ZHANG Ping-ping

HUANG Xian-jin

Related Institution

College of Geography, Shanxi Normal University

College of Land Resources and Tourism,Anhui Normal University

School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University

Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences

School of Geography, Beijing Normal University

⁰