Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Structure in Context of Transformation of Resource-based Cities

Yu Ran; Wei Lu; Ye Yun; Chu Zhaojun; Yu Zhongxiang

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.013

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Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Structure in Context of Transformation of Resource-based Cities

- Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Structure in Context of Transformation of Resource-based Cities
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 44, Issue 3, Pages: 113-123(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽农业大学经济管理学院,安徽,合肥,230036
  2. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏,南京,210095
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.013
  CLC： F293.2;F299.27
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Yu Ran, Wei Lu, Ye Yun, et al. Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Structure in Context of Transformation of Resource-based Cities[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 113-123.
DOI：

Yu Ran, Wei Lu, Ye Yun, et al. Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Structure in Context of Transformation of Resource-based Cities[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 113-123. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.013.

摘要

[目的] 资源型城市作为国家资源能源安全的重要保障城市，其转型发展方式更应向高质量方向推进。研究资源型城市转型背景下土地利用结构的变化并进行预测模拟，为新时期资源型城市国土空间优化提供新思路。[方法] 基于资源型城市转型发展的概念及内涵，分析经济、社会、人口、科技、资源环境5个维度的系统性影响，并与空间布局相关联，构建系统动力学模型，以安徽省铜陵市2005—2020年的历史数据为参照，将2021—2035年的数据设置仿真情境，进行土地利用结构的多情境趋势性预测分析。[结果] ①铜陵市土地利用和经济发展现状奠定了发展的基础，可以此为依据进行转型条件设置和土地利用结构变化的合理预测。 ②资源型城市转型发展作为一个系统性概念，形成“系统—指标—要素”的层级框架，不仅相互关联，密不可分，还传导作用于不同的地类，影响土地利用系统。 ③铜陵市2021—2035年地类的情境趋势发展差异较为相似，即耕地、林地、水域、草地和未利用地的减少幅度自经济发展、社会进步、综合发展而递减，在资源保护情境下面积均有小幅度提升。建设用地则相反，增加幅度随经济发展、社会进步、综合发展而递减，在资环保护情境下扩张速度得到一定程度的控制。[结论] 资源型城市的新时期转型，不仅要将内在要素融合成系统性概念，还要提升土地利用系统的关注度，重视结构合理性和发展协调性。

Abstract

[Objective] Resource-based cities are important guaranteed cities for national resource and energy security. Their transformation and development mode should be promoted in the direction of high quality. The change of land use structure under the background of transformation of resource-based cities was studied and the prediction and simulation were carried out to provide new ideas for the territorial space optimization of resource-based cities in the new era. [Methods] Based on the concept and connotation of the transformation and development of resource-based cities

the systematic impacts of five dimensions of economy

society

population

science and technology

resources and environment are analyzed

and correlated with spatial layout

a system dynamics model was built. Historical data for Tongling City

Anhui Province from 2005 to 2020 was used as a reference

and datasets from 2021 to 2035 were used in a simulation scenario to carry out a multi-contextual land use structure trend prediction analysis. [Results] ① The current situation of land use and economic development in Tongling City laid the foundation for development that was used as the basis of setting the conditions for transformation and reasonable prediction of changes in land use structure. ② As a systemic concept

the transformational development of resource cities has formed a hierarchical framework of “system-indicator-element”

which is not only interrelated and inextricably linked

but also transmits its effects on different land types and influences the land-use system. ③ Differences in the development of land use trends between 2021 and 2035 in Tongling City were similar

i. e.

the decrease of arable land

forest land

water area

grassland

and unused land decreased from economic development

social progress

and comprehensive development

and the area increased slightly under the scenario of resource and environmental protection. In contrast

the increase rate of construction land decreased with economic development

social progress and comprehensive development

and the expansion rate was controlled to a certain extent under the scenario of resource and environmental protection. [Conclusion] The new-era transformation of resource-based cities should not only integrate the intrinsic elements into a systematic concept but also enhance the attention of the land-use system and emphasize structural rationality and development coordination.

关键词

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references

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