Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis

Li Yun; Li Borui; Zhang Yimin; Wang Wei; Zhang Liang; Zhang Piao; Pei Hongwei

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis

- Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 44, Issue 3, Pages: 56-64(2024)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河北建筑工程学院,河北,张家口,075000
  2. 河北省水质工程与水资源综合利用重点实验室,河北,张家口,075000
  3. 河北省张家口水文勘测研究中心,河北,张家口,075000
  4. 北京大学城市与环境学院,北京,100871
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007
  CLC： TV121
- Published：2024
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Li Yun, Li Borui, Zhang Yimin, et al. Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 56-64.
DOI：

Li Yun, Li Borui, Zhang Yimin, et al. Analysis of Runoff Changes in Qingshui River and Baihe River Basins Based on Budyko Hypothesis[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2024, 44(3): 56-64. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2024.03.007.

摘要

[目的

]

综合分析清水河流域和白河流域的年径流变化及其主导因素，进一步揭示永定河流域和潮白河流域实际径流的变化及其影响因素，旨在为张家口地区水资源规划与管理提供理论依据。[方法

]

基于Budyko模型以永定河上游的清水河流域和潮白河上游的白河流域为研究对象构建流域水热耦合平衡方程，精确计算潜在蒸散发对主要气象因子的敏感系数，再通过敏感系数计算径流对主要气象因子的弹性系数，进一步计算气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。[结果

]

①近年来清水河流域和白河流域各气象因子的弹性系数呈现增加的趋势，这种趋势揭示了这两个流域日益增强的气候—水文耦合关系。和白河流域相比，清水河流域的水文过程对气候变化更加敏感。②人类活动对清水河流域和白河流域的径流量变化起主导作用。清水河流域和白河流域人类活动对径流变化的影响率分别是65.37%和83.90%。③较之于Fu，Choudhury-Yang和Wang-Tang公式，Zhang公式在清水河流域和白河流域具有更好的适用性，能较好地模拟流域的实际蒸散发量，R

达到0.97。[结论

]

人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响率为65.37%～83.90%，气候因素的影响率为16.10%～34.63%，今后应同时考虑气候和人类活动的影响，继续加强水分限制区的径流蒸散过程机理研究，以保障水资源安全。

Abstract

[Objective] The annual runoff changes and leading factors in Qingshuihe River basin and Baihe River basin were comprehensively analyzed

and the actual runoff changes and influencing factors in the two river basins were further revealed

in order to provide theoretical basis for water resources planning and management in Zhangjiakou region. [Methods] Based on Budyko model

the study was conducted for the Qingshui River basin in the upper reaches of the Yongding River and the Baihe River basin in the upper reaches of the Chaobai River. Coupled water-heat balance equations for the basins were constructed. Sensitivity coefficients of potential evapotranspiration to major meteorological factors were accurately calculated

and then elasticity coefficients of runoff to major meteorological factors from the sensitivity coefficients were calculated. Finally

the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes were calculated. [Results] ① The elasticity coefficients of meteorological factors in the Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin showed increasing trends in recent years

indicating that the increasing climate-hydrology coupling in these two basins and the hydrological processes in the Qingshui River basin were more sensitive to climate change than the coupling and processes in the Baihe River basin. ② Human activities dominated changes in the runoff of the Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin. The contribution rates of human activities to runoff changes in the Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin were 65.37% and 83.90%

respectively. ③ Compared with the Fu

Choudhury-Yang

and Wang-Tang formulas

the Zhang formula had better applicability in Qingshui River basin and the Baihe River basin. Actual evapotranspiration from the basins was modeled better

with the R2 value reaching 0.97. [Conclusion] The contribution of human activities to runoff changes in the study area ranged from 65.37% to 83.90%

and the contribution of climatic factors ranged from 16.10% to 34.63%. In the future

the impact of climate and human activities should be considered at the same time. Continued efforts should be made to strengthen research on the mechanisms and processes of runoff and evapotranspiration in water limited environments

therefore to ensure the security of water resources.

关键词

Keywords

references

Han Pengfei, Sankarasubramanian A, Wang Xusheng, et al. One-parameter analytical derivation in modified Budyko framework for unsteady-state streamflow elasticity in humid catchments[J]. Water Resources Research, 2023,59(9): e2023WR034725.

Zhang Yongqiang, Li Congcong, Chiew F H S, et al. Southern hemisphere dominates recent decline in global water availability [J]. Science, 2023,382(6670):579-584.

Chen Haorui, Wu Mousong, Duan Zheng, et al. Forecasting the human and climate impacts on groundwater resources in the irrigated agricultural region of North China Plain [J]. Hydrological Processes, 2023,37(3): e14853.

张利茹,王兴泽,王国庆,等.变化环境下水文资料序列的可靠性与一致性分析[J].水文,2015,35(2):39-43.Zhang Liru, Wang Xingze, Wang Guoqing, et al. Consistency and reliability analysis of hydrological sequence in environment change [J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2015,35(2):39-43.

韩鹏飞,王旭升,蒋小伟,等.跨流域地下水循环研究进展[J].地质科技通报,2023,42(4):107-117,129.Han Pengfei, Wang Xusheng, Jiang Xiaowei, et al. Advances in interbasin groundwater circulation [J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2023,42(4):107-117.

Xu Xiangyu, Yang Dawen, Yang Hanbo, et al. Attribution analysis based on the Budyko hypothesis for detecting the dominant cause of runoff decline in Haihe basin[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014,510:530-540.

Zhang Ke, Ruben G B, Li Xin, et al. A comprehensive assessment framework for quantifying climatic and anthropogenic contributions to streamflow changes: A case study in a typical semi-arid North China basin [J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2020,128:104704.

Yang Lin, Zhao Guangju, Tian Peng, et al. Runoff changes in the major river basins of China and their responses to potential driving forces [J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2022,607:127536.

王晓颖,宋培兵,廖卫红,等.气候变化和人类活动对白河流域径流变化影响的定量研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2020,31(4):50-56.Wang Xiaoying, Song Peibing, Liao Weihong, et al. Quantitative analysis of the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff variations of Baihe River basin [J]. Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering, 2020,31(4):50-56.

徐宗学,姜瑶.变化环境下的径流演变与影响研究:回顾与展望[J].水利水运工程学报,2022,44(1):9-18.Xu Zongxue, Jiang Yao. Studies on runoff evolution mechanism under changing environment: A state-of-the-art review [J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2022,44(1):9-18.

郝桂珍,宋凤芝,徐利,等.基于输出系数模型的清水河上游农业非点源污染负荷估算[J].科学技术与工程,2020,20(33):13919-13927.Hao Guizhen, Song Fengzhi, Xu Li, et al. Estimation of pollution loads from agricultural non-point sources in the upstream of Qingshui River based on export coefficient models [J]. Science Technology and Engineering, 2020,20(33):13919-13927.

班富孝.清水河流域水文特性[J].河北水利科技,2000,24(1):11-13.Ban Fuxiao. Hydrological characteristics of Qingshuihe River basin [J]. South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology, 2000,24(1):11-13.

王磊.清水河流域土地利用变化对径流的影响研究[D].河北保定:河北农业大学,2018.Wang Lei. Impacts of land use change on runoff in Qingshui River basin[D]. Baoding, Hebei: Hebei Agricultural University, 2018.

刘孟竹,张红娟,杨佳,等.海河上游清水河流域土地利用变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2020,40(3):147-154.Liu Mengzhu, Zhang Hongjuan, Yang Jia, et al. Characteristics of land use change in Qingshui River watershed in upper reaches of Haihe River [J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2020,40(3):147-154.

张良.清水河流域径流变化趋势及突变分析[J].内蒙古水利,2020,41(10):24-25.Zhang Liang. Analysis of runoff change trend and abrupt change in Qingshui River basin [J]. Inner Mongolia Water Resources, 2020,41(10):24-25.

班富孝.白河流域水文特性分析[J].现代农业科技,2009,38(24):261-268.Ban Fuxiao. Analysis of hydrological characteristics in Baihe River basin [J]. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology, 2009,38(24):261.

王晨杨,闫铁柱,翟丽梅,等.密云水库白河流域基流演变特征[J].生态学报,2022,42(8):3181-3190.Wang Chenyang, Yan Tiezhu, Zhai Limei, et al. Change characteristics of baseflow in Bai River basin of Miyun Reservoir based on comparison of separation methods [J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2022,42(8):3181-3190.

彭弢,贾仰文,牛存稳,等.永定河三家店以上流域径流减少归因分析[J].水利水运工程学报,2022,44(1):67-76.Peng Tao, Jia Yangwen, Niu Cunwen, et al. Attribution of runoff attenuation in the Yongding River basin upstream of the Sanjiadian [J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2022,44(1):67-76.

申滔滔.基于Budyko框架下漳河流域径流变化归因分析[D].河北省邯郸市:河北工程大学,2020.Shen Taotao. Attribution analysis of runoff variation in Zhanghe River basin based on Budyko framework [D]. Handan, Hebei: Hebei University of Engineering, 2020.

Zhou Sha, Yu Bofu, Huang Yuefei, et al. The complementary relationship and generation of the Budyko functions [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2015,42(6):1781-1790.

郭生练,郭家力,侯雨坤,等.基于Budyko假设预测长江流域未来径流量变化[J].水科学进展,2015,26(2):151-160.Guo Shenglian, Guo Jiali, Hou Yukun, et al. Prediction of future runoff change based on Budyko hypothesis in Yangtze River basin [J]. Advances in Water Science, 2015,26(2):151-160.

傅抱璞.论陆面蒸发的计算[J].大气科学,1981,5(1):23-31.Fu Baopu. On the calculation of the evaporation from land surface [J]. Chinese Journal漠畯??楁湴杭硯楳慰湨来???椠?塣畩祥潮湣来??攠琱?愸氱?‵?琱琩爺椲戳甭琳椱漮渼?慲渾慛氲礳獝椠獚?潡普?挠桌慵測朠敄獡?楥湳?牗甠湒漬映晗?楬湫?瑲栠敇?畒瀮猠瑒牥敳慰浯?潳晥?瑯桦攠??楡祮甠湡?剮敵獡敬爠癥潶楡牰?孴?嵡???捩瑲慡??捯潮氠潴杯椠捶慥?卥楴湡楴捩慯???と???????????????????scale [J]. Water Resources Research, 2001,37(3):701-708.

Yang Hanbo, Yang Dawen, Lei Zhidong, et al. New analytical derivation of the mean annual water-energy balance equation [J]. Water Resources Research, 2008,44(3):W03410.

Wang Dingbao, Tang Yin. A one-parameter Budyko model for water balance captures emergent behavior in darwinian hydrologic models [J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014,41(13):4569-4577.

冯雅茹.基于Budyko假设的典型流域实际蒸散发特征分析[D].北京:中国地质大学,2020.Feng Yaru. Analysis of actual evapotranspiration characteristics of typical watersheds based on Budyko hypothesis [D]. Beijing: China University Geosciences, 2020.

李敏欣,邹磊,夏军,等. Budyko框架下白河流域径流演变及其归因分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2023,32(4):774-782.Li Minxin, Zou Lei, Xia Jun, et al. Analysis of runoff change and its attribution in the Baihe River basin under the Budyko framework [J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze basin, 2023,32(4):774-782.

张建云,张成凤,鲍振鑫,等.黄淮海流域植被覆盖变化对径流的影响[J].水科学进展,2021,32(6):813-823.Zhang Jianyun, Zhang Chengfeng, Bao Zhenxin, et al. Analysis of the effects of vegetation changes on runoff in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin under global change [J]. Advances in Water Science, 2021,32(6):813-823.

游元媛.基于Budyko假设的全球径流模拟与定量归因[D].湖北武汉:中国地质大学,2022.You Yuanyuan. Simulation and attribution of global streamflow changes based on Budyko hypothesis [D]. Wuhan, Hubei: China University Geosciences, 2022.

李赟,李雅丽,张良,等.近70年首都水源涵养区水热条件及地表径流演变特征研究:以清水河和白河流域为例[J].节水灌溉,2023,48(1):99-108,115.Li Yun, Li Yali, Zhang Liang, et al. A study on the water and heat conditions and the evolution of surface runoff in the water-source conservation areas of the capital in the past 70 years: A case study in the Qingshui River and the Bai River Basins [J]. Water Saving Irrigation, 2023(1):99-108,115.

秦丽欢,周敬祥,李叙勇,等.密云水库上游径流变化趋势及影响因素[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1941-1951.Qin Lihuan, Zh

Views

218

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Spatiotemporal changes and driving mechanisms of vegetation cover in Dongting Lake area based on kNDVI and structural equation model

Construction of Yunzhong-Xizhou mountains ecological network based on sensitivity evaluation of ecosystem services and ecology

Impacts of seasonal drought on carbon-water coupling mechanism in China’s terrestrial ecosystems

Structure and shear strength of amorphous iron oxide-kaolinite cementation system in red soil

Construction of ecological security pattern at Zhangjiakou section of Bashang region based on landscape connectivity optimization

Related Author

No data

Related Institution

No data

⁰