[Objective] The spatial-temporal characteristics and decoupling effects of agricultural carbon emissions at Xuzhou City

Jiangsu Province were analyzed in order to provide a theoretical basis and data reference for green

high-quality sustainable development of agriculture and the benign growth of the agricultural economy in Xuzhou City

and its surrounding resource-based cities in the future. [Methods] The total amount

intensity

and structure of agricultural carbon emissions at Xuzhou City from 2000 to 2020 were measured using the emission coefficient method

and their decoupling relationship with agricultural economic development was determine based on the Tapio decoupling model. [Results] ① The overall trend of agricultural carbon emissions at Xuzhou City could be described as M-shaped (rapid rise-fluctuating rise-rapid decline) from 1.61×106 t in 2000 to 1.69×106 t in 2020. The contributions of factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions followed the order of arable land use (46.44%)

crop cultivation (31.90%) and livestock breeding (21.66%)

with chemical fertilizers being the most important carbon source; ② Agricultural carbon emission at Xuzhou City varied significantly among districts (counties and cities) and had undergone a long-term evolutionary process from rising to falling

with a spatial distribution pattern of “higher in the middle and lower in the surrounding areas”

with Pizhou City being the most prominent; ③ Xuzhou City’s agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural economic development have generally undergone a process of “weak decoupling—strong negative decoupling—expansion of negative decoupling—strong decoupling”

and has mainly manifested as strong decoupling since the 13th Five-Year Plan. [Conclusion] Xuzhou City’s agricultural carbon emissions are becoming more and more reasonable as the concept of low-carbon emission reduction continues to deepen. Agricultural economic development has also achieved clear and convincing effects.