Multi-scenario Simulation on Carbon Storage of Green Space in Harbin City

Li Xue; Li Wen; Shi Song; Qu Chen

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230320.001

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Multi-scenario Simulation on Carbon Storage of Green Space in Harbin City

- Multi-scenario Simulation on Carbon Storage of Green Space in Harbin City
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 43, Issue 3, Pages: 320-329(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  东北林业大学园林学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150040
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230320.001
  CLC： F301.2;X171.1
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Li Xue, Li Wen, Shi Song, et al. Multi-scenario Simulation on Carbon Storage of Green Space in Harbin City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 320-329.
DOI：

Li Xue, Li Wen, Shi Song, et al. Multi-scenario Simulation on Carbon Storage of Green Space in Harbin City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(3): 320-329. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20230320.001.

摘要

[目的

]

预测黑龙江省哈尔滨市未来绿色空间格局碳储量，分析绿色空间变化对碳储量的影响，为双碳政策下哈尔滨市绿色空间规划提供决策依据。[方法

]

基于2010，2020年哈尔滨市绿色空间土地覆盖数据，将双碳产业驱动因子引入FLUS模型预测2030年不同情景的绿色空间土地覆盖变化，利用InVEST模型测算2010，2020，2030年碳储量，比较分析碳储量时空变化规律，探讨绿色空间对碳储量的影响。[结果

]

①将双碳产业因子引入FLUS模型后，较原模型的kappa系数提高了1.30%，均方根误差减少了0.21%，改进后的模型模拟精度更高。②2010—2020年，碳储量呈下降趋势，共减少了5.14×10

t，耕地的减少是造成碳储量损失的主要因素。地上生物量碳库和土壤碳库碳储量最多，占总碳储量的88.52%。③2030年自然发展、生态保护和经济发展情景下的碳储量分别为2.58×10

，2.58×10

t，同2020年相比均呈下降趋势，其中生态保护情景的下降速率最慢，是自然发展情景下的0.12倍。[结论

]

未来应加强生态保护修复措施，减少耕地和林地面积流失，控制非绿色空间的扩张，提高哈尔滨市域碳储量。

Abstract

[Objective] The carbon storage of the future green space patterns was predicted

and the impact of green space changes on carbon storage was analyzed in order to provide a basis for green space planning in Harbin City

Heilongjiang Province under the dual-carbon policy.[Methods] Based on the green space land cover data of Harbin City in 2010 and 2020

the dual-carbon industry driving factors were introduced into the FLUS model

and the changes in green space land cover under different scenarios in 2030 were predicted. The carbon storage values in 2010

2020

and 2030 were calculated using the InVEST model. The spatial-temporal variation of carbon storage was compared and analyzed

and the influence of green space on carbon storage was discussed.[Results] ① After the dual-carbon industry factors were introduced into the FLUS model

the kappa coefficient increased by 1.30%

and the root mean square error decreased by 0.21% compared with the original model

indicating increased simulation accuracy of the improved model. ② From 2010 to 2020

carbon storage decreased by 5.14×106 t

primarily as result of decreased cultivated land. Carbon was primarily stored in the aboveground biomass carbon pool and the soil carbon pool

accounting for 88.52% of the total carbon reserves. ③ Carbon storage under natural development

ecological protection

and economic development scenarios in 2030 were 2.58×109

2.58×109

and 2.58×109 t

respectively

showing a downward trend from 2020. The decline rate in the ecological protection scenario was the slowest of the three scenarios

and was 0.12 times the rate observed for the natural development scenario.[Conclusion] In the future

ecological protection and restoration measures should be strengthened to reduce the loss of cultivated land and forest land

and the expansion of non-green space should be controlled in order to improve carbon storage in Harbin City.

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