Risk Prediction and Optimal Control of Waterlogging in Urban Land Based on PLUS-SCS Model —A Case Study in Changsha City, Hunan Province

Jiao Sheng; Cao Tingting; Niu Yanhe; Guan Huichang

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.05.023

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Risk Prediction and Optimal Control of Waterlogging in Urban Land Based on PLUS-SCS Model —A Case Study in Changsha City, Hunan Province

- Risk Prediction and Optimal Control of Waterlogging in Urban Land Based on PLUS-SCS Model —A Case Study in Changsha City, Hunan Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 43, Issue 5, Pages: 195-202(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 湖南大学建筑与规划学院,湖南,长沙,410082
  2. 丘陵地区城乡人居环境科学湖南省重点实验室,湖南,长沙,410082
  3. 湖南省国土空间规划发展研究中心,湖南,长沙,410082
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.05.023
  CLC： X43;F301.2;P333.2
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Jiao Sheng, Cao Tingting, Niu Yanhe, et al. Risk Prediction and Optimal Control of Waterlogging in Urban Land Based on PLUS-SCS Model —A Case Study in Changsha City, Hunan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(5): 195-202.
DOI：

Jiao Sheng, Cao Tingting, Niu Yanhe, et al. Risk Prediction and Optimal Control of Waterlogging in Urban Land Based on PLUS-SCS Model —A Case Study in Changsha City, Hunan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(5): 195-202. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.05.023.

摘要

[目的

]

预测城市未来土地利用情况及内涝风险强度，并探讨未来城市内涝风险的优化管控措施及实施效果，为提升城市内涝防控水平，优化城市用地布局提供参考依据。[方法

]

以湖南省长沙市为例，借助PLUS和SCS模型，预测基准情景下城市用地布局及其内涝风险情况，将内涝高风险区域作为PLUS模型中的限制转化因子，耦合PLUS和SCS模型，模拟内涝管控情景下城市用地布局及其内涝风险情况。通过对比两种情景下的内涝风险差异来验证优化管控措施实施的效益。[结果

]

预测基准情景下2035年长沙市建设用地内涝高风险区面积为96.47 km

，在不减少建设用地面积的前提下，内涝管控情景下城市建设用地的内涝风险总面积相比基准情景减少了36.94 km

，其中新增建设用地中的高风险区全部被规避。[结论

]

未来城市用地内涝风险呈现出显著增加的趋势，耦合PLUS-SCS模型的优化管控方法能够帮助城市规避内涝风险。

Abstract

[Objective] The urban land use in the future and corresponding waterlogging risk intensity was predicted

and the optimal control of the waterlogging risk and its implementation effects was explored in order to provide references for improving the prevention and control level of urban waterlogging and optimizing the layout of urban land use. [Methods] The study was conducted in Changsha City

Hunan Province. Urban land use layout and its waterlogging risk under a baseline scenario were predicted using the PLUS and SCS models. High-risk waterlogging areas were used as limiting conversion factors in the PLUS model to simulate the urban land layout and its waterlogging risk under a waterlogging control scenario by coupling the PLUS and SCS models. The implementation of the optimal management and control measures was verified by comparing the waterlogging risk differences under the two scenarios. [Results] The high-risk waterlogging area of construction land was predicted to be 96.47 km2 in 2035 under the baseline scenario

and the total waterlogging risk area of the urban construction land under the waterlogging control scenario would be reduced by 36.94 km2 compared with the baseline scenario without reducing construction land area. Furthermore

all high-risk areas in the new construction land would be avoided. [Conclusion] The waterlogging risk in urban land will increase significantly in the future. An optimization control method based on the PLUS-SCS model will help cities avoid waterlogging risk.

关键词

Keywords

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