Ji Kaiting, Zhang Leqin. Driving Factors and Its Effects of Rural Green Development in Anhui Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(2): 389-396.
DOI:
Ji Kaiting, Zhang Leqin. Driving Factors and Its Effects of Rural Green Development in Anhui Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(2): 389-396. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2023.02.044.
Driving Factors and Its Effects of Rural Green Development in Anhui Province
[目的] 深入探索乡村绿色发展驱动因子影响效应,为实现乡村振兴与经济社会发展全面绿色转型提供理论指导。 [方法] 通过构建乡村绿色发展评价指标体系,运用主成分分析方法定量测算2010—2020年安徽省各地级市乡村绿色发展指数,构建回归模型考察驱动因子影响效应。 [结果] ① 安徽省乡村绿色发展平均水平稳步提升,其值由42.51增至79.41,年均增幅8.68%;各地级市乡村绿色发展指数年均增长速率为5.71%~10.94%。蚌埠市增长最快,最慢的为马鞍山市。 ② 省域各驱动因子影响效应:产业结构(0.065 1)>经济(0.050 3)>技术(0.041 0)>人口(0.033 1)>政策(0.031 2)>开发程度(0.017 6)。 ③ 分区域影响效应皖北远大于皖中和皖南,其中,第一驱动因子在皖北是产业结构,皖中、皖南是经济;第二、第三驱动因子分别为技术和人口;城市开发强度与皖北、皖中乡村绿色发展呈正相关,而与皖南呈负相关。 [结论] 为了促进乡村绿色发展,安徽省应结合区域特色,利用生态优势,坚持科技创新,进一步优化产业结构布局,加快新型城市化建设。
Abstract
[Objective] The effects of the driving factors of rural green development were comprehensively determined in order to provide theoretical guidance for achieving overall green rural revitalization
and for economic and social development. [Methods] An evaluation index system for rural green development was established
and then the rural green development indexes of prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province from 2010 to 2020 were quantitatively analyzed using the principal component analysis method. A regression model was then constructed to investigate the effects of driving factors. [Results] ① The average level of rural green development in Anhui Province has been steadily increasing from 42.51 to 79.41 (annual increase of 8.68%). The average annual growth rate of the rural green development indexes in prefecture-level cities was between 5.71% and 10.94%
with that of Bengbu City increasing the fastest and Ma’anshan City increasing the slowest. ② The influencing effect of various driving factors in the province followed the order of industrial structure (0.065 1)>economy (0.050 3)>technology (0.041 0)>population (0.033 1)>policy (0.031 2)>development status (0.017 6). ③ The effects in Northern Anhui were far more significant than the effects in Central and Southern Anhui. The first driving factor was industrial structure in Northern Anhui. The first driving factor was the economy in Central and Southern Anhui. The second and third driving factors were technology and population
respectively. The intensity of urban development was positively correlated with rural green development in Northern and Central Anhui
but negatively correlated with rural green development in Southern Anhui. [Conclusion] In order to promote rural green development
Anhui Province should utilize ecological advantages resulting from regional characteristics
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