Eco-environmental Effects and Prediction of Land Use Transition for Zunyi City Under Background of Carbon Peaking

Wei Yuan; Chen Qi

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20221207.003

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Eco-environmental Effects and Prediction of Land Use Transition for Zunyi City Under Background of Carbon Peaking

- Eco-environmental Effects and Prediction of Land Use Transition for Zunyi City Under Background of Carbon Peaking
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 43, Issue 1, Pages: 388-398(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 贵州财经大学管理科学与工程学院,贵州,贵阳,550025
  2. 贵州财经大学公共管理学院,贵州,贵阳,550025
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20221207.003
  CLC： S159
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
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Wei Yuan, Chen Qi. Eco-environmental Effects and Prediction of Land Use Transition for Zunyi City Under Background of Carbon Peaking[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(1): 388-398.
DOI：

Wei Yuan, Chen Qi. Eco-environmental Effects and Prediction of Land Use Transition for Zunyi City Under Background of Carbon Peaking[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2023, 43(1): 388-398. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20221207.003.

摘要

[目的

]

研究土地利用转型的生态环境效应及其发展趋势，为促进土地利用转型、低碳循环发展及实现“双碳”目标提供依据。[方法

]

基于贵州省遵义市2005，2010，2015，2020年4期的土地利用数据，运用空间分析技术，对该区土地利用转型的生态环境效应及其发展趋势进行研究。[结果

]

①2005—2020年土地转型主要表现为碳汇用地之间的相互转换，以及碳汇用地向碳源用地转型。②净碳排放量由2005年的5.99×10

t增加到2020年的9.87×10

t，增加了9.27×10

t，增幅达1 548.15%。但增量却呈逐渐减少的趋势，增幅也逐渐降低。③遵义市生态系统服务价值量由2005年的7.64×10

元增加到2020年的7.73×10

元，呈波动上升趋势，共增加了9.14×10

元，增长率为1.2%。④通过灰色预测模型得出遵义市未来净碳排放量和生态系统服务价值量会持续增加，且都呈规律上升趋势。[结论

]

遵义市在生态环境方面仍面临着不小的压力，还需加大力度提升生态系统服务价值，着力实现碳达峰目标。

Abstract

[Objective] The ecological and environmental effects of land use transition and their development trends were analyzed in order to provide a basis for promoting land use transition

low-carbon cycle development

and realizing the goal of “double carbon”. [Methods] We used land use data for Zunyi City of Guizhou Province in 2005

2010

2015

and 2020 and spatial analysis technology for this study. [Results] ① Land transformation from 2005 to 2020 was mainly manifested by the interconversion between carbon sink sites and the transformation of carbon sink sites to carbon source sites. ② Net carbon emission increased from 5.99×105 tons in 2005 to 9.87×106 tons in 2020

an increase of 9.27×106 tons (1 548.15%). However

the incremental amount gradually decreased

and the rate of increase gradually decreased. ③ The value of ecosystem services in Zunyi City increased from 7.64×1010 yuan in 2005 to 7.73×1010 yuan in 2020

showing a fluctuating upward trend

with a total increase of 9.14×108 yuan and a growth rate of 1.2%. ④ The gray prediction model showed that the net carbon emissions and ecosystem service value for Zunyi City will continue to increase in the future

with both showing a consistent upward trend. [Conclusion] Zunyi City continues to facing considerable pressure in terms of the ecological environment

and needs to increase efforts to enhance the value of ecosystem services while striving to achieve the goal of carbon peaking.

关键词

Keywords

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