Simulation of Regional Territorial Spatial Patterns Based on Major Function-Oriented Zoning and FLUS-Markov Model -A Case Study at Fuzhou Metropolitan Area

Xu Chongmin; Chen Jin; Zhang Ludan; Lin Sen; Qiu Rongzu; Hu Xisheng

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.020

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Simulation of Regional Territorial Spatial Patterns Based on Major Function-Oriented Zoning and FLUS-Markov Model -A Case Study at Fuzhou Metropolitan Area

- Simulation of Regional Territorial Spatial Patterns Based on Major Function-Oriented Zoning and FLUS-Markov Model -A Case Study at Fuzhou Metropolitan Area
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 42, Issue 6, Pages: 155-165(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  福建农林大学交通与土木工程学院,福建,福州,350108
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.020
  CLC： X321
- Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
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Xu Chongmin, Chen Jin, Zhang Ludan, et al. Simulation of Regional Territorial Spatial Patterns Based on Major Function-Oriented Zoning and FLUS-Markov Model -A Case Study at Fuzhou Metropolitan Area[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(6): 155-165.
DOI：

Xu Chongmin, Chen Jin, Zhang Ludan, et al. Simulation of Regional Territorial Spatial Patterns Based on Major Function-Oriented Zoning and FLUS-Markov Model -A Case Study at Fuzhou Metropolitan Area[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(6): 155-165. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.06.020.

摘要

[目的] 模拟2030年福州都市圈不同主体功能区各土地利用/覆盖类型空间分布，预测研究区国土空间格局未来发展趋势。 [方法] 基于2010和2020年土地利用/覆盖现状遥感监测，OpenStreetMap(OSM)，digit elevation model(DEM)，夜间灯光及气象等多源数据，利用FLUS-Markov模型基于分区模拟和整体模拟方式分别预测研究区2030年的土地利用/覆盖空间结构并进行对比，探讨各主体功能区土地利用/覆盖时空变化强度差异特征。 [结果] ①2020年福州都市圈各主体功能区模拟精度kappa系数均在0.85以上，说明该模型关键参数的组合设置可以有效地模拟不同功能区的土地利用/覆盖空间分布格局； ②与整体模拟相比，分区模拟结果的单一土地利用动态度、综合土地利用动态度和土地利用程度等指标相对较优，故分区模拟更适用于区域未来土地利用/覆盖规划。 [结论] 基于分区模拟方式的福州都市圈2030年模拟结果与主体功能区划的发展目标更加吻合，因此，可以结合各功能区发展特点提出各区域经济发展和生态保护的重点方向。

Abstract

[Objective] The spatial distribution of land use/cover types of different major function-oriented zoning (MFOZ) areas in the Fuzhou metropolitan area in 2030 was simulated

and the future development trend of the land spatial patterns was predicted. [Methods] Based on multi-source data such as DEM and land use/cover

road network

nighttime light images and meteorological data

the FLUS-Markov model was used to predict and compare the land use/cover structure of the metropolitan area in 2030 based on zoning simulation and overall simulation in order to explore differences in the spatial and temporal change intensity of land use/cover of MFOZ. [Results] ① In 2020

the kappa coefficients of the simulation results of MFOZ in the Fuzhou metropolitan area were all above 0.85

indicating that the combination of key parameters in the model could effectively simulate the spatial distribution pattern of land use/cover in different functional areas; ② Compared with the overall simulation

the better indication of single land use dynamic degree

comprehensive land use dynamic degree and land use degree in zoning results showed that

the zoning simulation was more suitable for future regional land use/cover planning. [Conclusion] The zoning simulation results of the Fuzhou metropolitan area in 2030 were more consistent with the development goals of MFOZ. Therefore

the future regional land use planning could be worked out combined with the development characteristics of MFOZ to propose the key directions of economic development and ecological protection in each region.

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