Effects of Land Use Change on Spatio-temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value Profit and Loss in Irtysh River Basin

Luo Wanyun; Sun Hui; Zhong Fanglei; Rong mingqian; Wang fubo; Zhou Yang; Dai Lizheng

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.038

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Effects of Land Use Change on Spatio-temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value Profit and Loss in Irtysh River Basin

- Effects of Land Use Change on Spatio-temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value Profit and Loss in Irtysh River Basin
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 42, Issue 4, Pages: 301-311(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046
  2. 新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830046
  3. 中央民族大学经济学院,北京,100091
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.038
  CLC： F062.2;TP79
- Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
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Luo Wanyun, Sun Hui, Zhong Fanglei, et al. Effects of Land Use Change on Spatio-temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value Profit and Loss in Irtysh River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(4): 301-311.
DOI：

Luo Wanyun, Sun Hui, Zhong Fanglei, et al. Effects of Land Use Change on Spatio-temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value Profit and Loss in Irtysh River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(4): 301-311. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.04.038.

摘要

[目的

]

评估土地利用变化与生态系统服务价值损益之间的关联效应，为制定适宜的土地干预政策提供科学依据。[方法

]

基于5期额尔齐斯河流域土地利用数据以及CLUE-S模型，量化土地利用变化下流域生态系统服务价值损益时空演变规律。[结果

]

①2000—2018年额尔齐斯河流域草地和林地持续地转化为其他土地，耕地面积大幅度增长；到2030年，流域耕地面积的比例将上升4.92%(1 502.48 km

上升到4 070 km

)，而林地呈现快速下降趋势，所占比例将下降7.18%(由7 547.26 km

减少到5 424.36 km

)。②额尔齐斯河流域生态系统服务价值由2000年的518.16亿元增长到2018年的1 832.44亿元，到2030年，生态系统服务价值处于波动下降趋势(2030年为1 777.86亿元)； ③林地和草地被耕地所占用，导致额尔齐斯河流域生态系统服务价值损失预计达到108.80亿元，依次为：草地转换损失(34.39亿元)>林地转换损失(28.49亿元)>水域转换损失(18.31亿元)。④额尔齐斯河流域生态系统服务价值损益空间分布呈现“北高南低”的发展格局，价值损益在全局和局部上均呈现显著的正向空间自相关。[结论

]

人为因素导致大量生态用地被占用，生态系统服务价值下降且损益空间异质性显著，需要进一步采取有效的生态保护与补偿政策推动农牧户生计转型，减小对自然环境的依赖性。

Abstract

[Objective] The correlation between land use changes and ecosystem service values were assessed to provide references for formulating appropriate land intervention policies.[Methods] The five-period land use data of the Irtysh River basin and the CLUE-S model were used to quantify the temporal and spatial variation of ecosystem service value profit and loss under land use change.[Results] ① The conversion of grassland and forest land to other land continued from 2000 to 2018 in the Irtysh River basin

and the cultivated land area increased significantly. By 2030

the proportion of arable land in this basin would increase by 4.92% (from 1 502.48 km2 to 4 070 km2)

while the forest land area decreased rapidly by 7.18% (from 7 547.26 km2 to 5 424.36 km2). ② The value of ecosystem services in the Irtysh River basin increased from 51.816 billion yuan in 2000 to 183.244 billion yuan in 2018. By 2030

the value of ecosystem services would be in a fluctuating downward trend (177.786 billion yuan in 2030). ③ Forest land and grassland were converted to cultivated land

and the resulting loss in ecosystem service value in the Irtysh River basin was expected to reach 10.880 billion yuan

followed by grassland conversion loss (3.439 billion yuan) > forest land conversion loss (2.849 billion yuan) > water area conversion loss (1.831 billion yuan). ④ The spatial distribution of ecosystem service value gains and losses in the Irtysh River basin showed a pattern of "high in the north and low in the south"

and the value gains and losses showed positive spatial autocorrelation

both globally and locally.[Conclusion] Human factors led to the occupation of a large amount of ecological land

a decline of ecosystem service value

and significant spatial heterogeneity of profit and loss. It is necessary to undertake further effective ecological protection and compensation policies to promote the livelihood transformation of farmers and herdsmen

and to reduce their dependence on the natural environment.

关键词

Keywords

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