[Objective] The trend and driving factors of desertification change in the Aksu region from 2009 to 2019 were studied in order to provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration in the region and for formulating desertification control policies according to local conditions.[Methods] A desertification evaluation index system was constructed based on the Sixth National Rules for Monitoring Desertification. The trend in desertification change in the Aksu region from 2009 to 2019 was evaluated with ArcGIS and IDRISI software

and the driving factors of desertification were analyzed and the predictions were made.[Results] ① The desertification area in the Aksu region decreased over time from 2009 to 2019

and desertification declined. Desertification in the Aksu region showed strong spatial heterogeneity

and the area of extremely severe desertification was located in the southern part of the study area bordering the Taklamakan Desert. The extremely severe desertification area accounted for the largest proportion of the desertification area. ② The results of the single driver analysis of desertification in the Aksu region from 2009 to 2019 showed that land use type was the most important factor influencing desertification in the Aksu region

and the interaction of multiple drivers had stronger explanatory power on desertification evolution than any single factor. The mode and intensity of action showed enhancement and non-linear enhancement

respectively. ③ The prediction results from the CA-Markov model showed that if the driving factors did not change

the degree of desertification in the Aksu region would continue to reverse during 2019-2024

and the overall change for the area would be from extremely severe desertification to severe desertification. The desertification area would expand in some regions.[Conclusion] The desertification area in the study area decreased during the study period

and the desertification degree declined. The main factor affecting desertification was land use type. Desertification control as well as ecological restoration projects should be carried out to reasonably and effectively control and prevent desertification by focusing on combinations of the desertification driving factors.