Simulation and Prediction of Changes in Carbon Storage and Carbon Source/Sink Under Different Land Use Scenarios in Arid Region of Northwest China

Han Min; Xu Changchun; Long Yunxia; Liu Fang

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.03.042

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Simulation and Prediction of Changes in Carbon Storage and Carbon Source/Sink Under Different Land Use Scenarios in Arid Region of Northwest China

- Simulation and Prediction of Changes in Carbon Storage and Carbon Source/Sink Under Different Land Use Scenarios in Arid Region of Northwest China
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 42, Issue 3, Pages: 335-344(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  新疆大学地理科学学院, 新疆绿洲生态重点实验室,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830017
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.03.042
  CLC： X171.1;F301.24
- Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Han Min, Xu Changchun, Long Yunxia, et al. Simulation and Prediction of Changes in Carbon Storage and Carbon Source/Sink Under Different Land Use Scenarios in Arid Region of Northwest China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(3): 335-344.
DOI：

Han Min, Xu Changchun, Long Yunxia, et al. Simulation and Prediction of Changes in Carbon Storage and Carbon Source/Sink Under Different Land Use Scenarios in Arid Region of Northwest China[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(3): 335-344. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.03.042.

摘要

[目的

]

研究中国西北干旱区2000—2020年以及未来2100年不同发展情景下的土地利用变化，分析土地利用变化引起的碳储量、碳源/汇变化，以期为区域土地优化管理及碳汇增加和环境保护提供参考。[方法

]

基于2000—2020年土地利用数据，采用FLUS模型模拟未来2100年土地利用情景；采用修正后的碳密度、土地利用数据，运用InVEST模型carbon子模块估算并分析2000—2020年及未来2100年不同土地利用情景下的区域生态系统碳储量、碳源/汇及变化。[结果

]

①2000—2020年西北干旱区耕地、草地和建设用地面积持续增加，林地、水域和未利用地面积减少，21 a间全区域碳储量增长了1.60×10

t，其中植被碳储总量增加2.89×10

t，土壤碳储总量增加1.60×10

t。②与2020年相比，2100年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下碳储量分别增加了6.37×10

，7.78×10

，8.49×10

t，耕地、生态保护情景下碳储能力有明显的提升，是增加区域碳汇的重要途径。③西北干旱区碳储量值空间分布存在明显异质性，碳储量高值区（9 800～14 568 t）主要集中连片分布于山林区，而广大沙漠、戈壁区碳储量值较低（1 600～5 800 t），这与区域土地利用类型的分布密切相关。④2000—2100年碳源/汇区呈嵌套、交错分布，碳源区主要分布于天山北坡、塔里木盆地绿洲边缘及昆仑山西部，碳汇区与碳储量中、高值区分布基本一致，集中在林地、草地广布的山区。[结论

]

西北干旱区2000—2020年碳储量呈持续上升趋势，未来3种情景下碳储量也均有明显增加，特别是生态保护情景下碳储能力显著提升，有利于生态环境持续良性发展。

Abstract

[Objective] The land-use changes from 2000 to 2020 and in the future (2100) under different development scenarios in the arid region of Northwest China were studied

and the changes in carbon storage and carbon source/sink caused by land-use changes were analyzed

in order to provide a reference for regional land management optimization

carbon sink increase

and environmental protection.[Methods] Based on land use data from 2000 to 2020

the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use situation in 2100. The carbon storage

carbon source/sink

and carbon changes in regional ecosystems in 2000-2020 and in 2100 under different development scenarios were estimated and analyzed by using the carbon submodule of the InVEST model with the revised carbon density and land use data.[Results] ① From 2000 to 2020

the area of cultivated land

grassland

and construction land increased continuously

while the areas of forest land

water

and unused land decreased. The total carbon storage of the region increased by 1.60×108 t during the 21 years

including 2.89×105 t for vegetation and 1.60×108 t for soil. ② Compared with 2020

carbon storage will increase by 6.37×108

7.78×108 t

and 8.49×108 t

respectively

under the natural development scenario

the cultivated land protection scenario

and the ecological protection scenario in 2100. The carbon storage capacity of the cultivated land protection scenario and the ecological protection scenario will improve significantly

and these will be important ways to increase regional carbon sink. ③ There was obvious heterogeneity in the spatial distribution of carbon storage values in Northwest China. The high-value areas of carbon storage (9 800~14 568 t) were mainly located in mountainous forest areas

while the vast desert and Gobi areas had low carbon storage values (1 600~5 800 t)

and the distribution of carbon was closely related to the distribution of regional land use types. ④ From 2000 to 2100

the carbon source/sink area was nested and interlaced. The carbon source area was mainly located over the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

the oasis edge of the Tarim Basin

and the Western Kunlun Mountains. The distribution of the carbon sink area was basically consistent with the middle and high value areas of carbon reserves

and concentrated on the mountainous area containing extensive forest land and grassland.[Conclusion] The carbon storage in the arid area of Northwest China showed a continuous upward trend from 2000 to 2020

and the carbon storage in the future under the three scenarios also increased significantly

especially under the ecological protection scenario

which is conducive to the sustainable and benign development of the ecological environment

关键词

Keywords

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