[Objective] The effects of cultivated land fragmentation was evaluated and predicted in order to provide a useful reference to address the problem of cultivated land fragmentation in the Jizhou District of Tianjin City.[Methods] The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by means of evaluation index system construction and factor analysis weighting. The CA-Markov model was used to evaluate the predicted land use pattern in 2025 for cultivated land fragmentation

and to perform spatial autocorrelation analysis of the evaluation results in order to judge the spatial distribution characteristics of cultivated land fragmentation level.[Results] ① Cultivated land fragmentation increased from 2000 to 2005 from the southern plain to the northern mountainous area. ② From 2005 to 2020

the deepening degree of fragmentation in the south was more obvious than in the north. ③ Cultivated land fragmentation of 18 towns in the Jizhou District will decrease to varying degrees by 2025

but the degree of cultivated land fragmentation in the north will still be more severe than in the south. ④ Cultivated land fragmentation from 2000 to 2025 in towns and villages in southwestern Jizhou will maintain the characteristics of low-low agglomeration

and occasionally the high-low agglomeration phenomenon will appear. Except for the characteristics of low-high agglomeration in 2020

the towns and villages around Yuqiao reservoir will show spatial distribution characteristics of high-high agglomeration in other years.[Conclusion] The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of cultivated land fragmentation were obvious

and the quantitative results of fragmentation were clustered. Based on the above analysis results

improvement measures for north-south division and key guidance recommendations are proposed.