Dynamic Variation of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationship with Population Density in Bohai Rim Region During 2000—2020

Xu Yong; Zhao Chun; Dou Shiqing; Hao Wenqiang; Zheng Zhiwei; Jing Juanli

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.036

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Dynamic Variation of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationship with Population Density in Bohai Rim Region During 2000—2020

- Dynamic Variation of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationship with Population Density in Bohai Rim Region During 2000—2020
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 42, Issue 2, Pages: 264-274(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,广西,桂林,541006
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.036
  CLC： Q948;X171
- Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
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Xu Yong, Zhao Chun, Dou Shiqing, et al. Dynamic Variation of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationship with Population Density in Bohai Rim Region During 2000—2020[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 264-274.
DOI：

Xu Yong, Zhao Chun, Dou Shiqing, et al. Dynamic Variation of Vegetation Cover and Its Relationship with Population Density in Bohai Rim Region During 2000—2020[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 264-274. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.036.

摘要

[目的

]

分析2000—2020年环渤海地区植被NDVI时空演变特征和人口密度变化的冷热点变迁格局，探究环渤海地区植被NDVI对人口密度变化的响应特征，揭示环渤海地区植被NDVI和人口密度重心的迁移轨迹，为该地区植被监测和管理，以及生态环境保护提供理论依据。[方法

]

以2000—2020年MODIS NDVI和Population Density时间序列为数据源，采用Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、Mann-Kendall显著性检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、Getis-Ord G

分析和重心转移模型等方法。[结果

]

①2000—2020年环渤海地区植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势，上升斜率为0.022/10 a，且植被NDVI上升区域面积远大于下降区域面积。2000—2010年植被NDVI上升速率明显高于2010—2020年植被NDVI上升速率。②2000—2020年环渤海地区人口密度变化热点区和冷点区所占比例分别为11.26%和46.84%，人口密度变化以冷点区为主，冷点区主要呈条带状从环渤海地区东北部延伸至西北部，以及山东省东南部部分地区。③环渤海地区人口密度对植被NDVI存在单向格兰杰原因，人口密度的改变是引起植被NDVI变化的格兰杰原因，而植被NDVI的变化不是造成人口密度改变的格兰杰原因。整体上，人口密度的增长对区域植被NDVI的影响主要为负向效应，人口集聚程度越高的区域，植被NDVI下降越显著。④2000—2020年的植被NDVI重心迁移方向无明显空间模式，但总体向西北方向迁移，人口密度重心整体呈东南至西北方向迁移。[结论

]

2000—2020环渤海地区植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势。人口密度的增长对植被NDVI变化具有负向影响。综合考虑人口密度变化和气候变化对环渤海地区植被NDVI变化的影响有待进一步研究。

Abstract

[Objective] The response characteristics of vegetation NDVI to population density change were explored to reveal the migration track of vegetation NDVI and population density center of gravity in the Bohai Rim region

in order to provide a theoretical basis for vegetation monitoring and management and ecological environment protection in the region. [Methods] Based on the MOD13A3 NDVI and population density time series from 2000 to 2020

the methods of Theil-Sen Median analysis

Mann-Kendall significance test

Granger causality test

Getis-Ord Gi* analysis

and center of gravity transfer model were used to study the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation cover and the hotspot variation of population density. [Results] ① from 2000 to 2020

NDVI in the Bohai Rim region showed an upward trend

with an upward slope of 0.022/10 a

and the area of NDVI rising was much larger than that of falling area. The rising rate of NDVI from 2000 to 2010 was significantly higher than that from 2010 to 2020. ② From 2000 to 2020

the proportion of hot spots and cold spots in the change of population density in the Bohai Rim region was 11.26% and 46.84% respectively. The change of population density was mainly in the cold spot region

which mainly extended in strips from the northeast of the Bohai Rim region to the northwest and some areas in the southeast of Shandong Province. ③ There was a one-way Granger cause of population density on NDVI around the Bohai Sea. The change of population density was the Granger cause of the change of NDVI

while the change of NDVI was not the Granger cause of the change of population density. On the whole

the growth of population density mainly had a negative effect on regional NDVI. The higher the degree of population agglomeration

the more significant the decline of NDVI. ④ There was no obvious spatial pattern in the migration direction of NDVI center of gravity of vegetation from 2000 to 2020

but it generally migrated to the northwest

and the center of gravity of population density migrated from the southeast to the northwest. [Conclusion] From 2000 to 2020

the NDVI in the Bohai Rim region shows an upward trend. The increase of population density has a negative impact on the change of NDVI. Further study needs to be conducted considering the impact of population density change and climate change on NDVI change in the Bohai Rim region.

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Keywords

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