Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecological Land in Karst Area Based on FLUS Model —A Case Study in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province

Lin Tong; Feng Zhaohua; Wu Dafang; Yang Muzhuang; Ma Peifang

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.030

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Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecological Land in Karst Area Based on FLUS Model —A Case Study in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province

- Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecological Land in Karst Area Based on FLUS Model —A Case Study in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 42, Issue 2, Pages: 219-227(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 广州大学地理科学与遥感学院,广东,广州,510006
  2. 湖南省第二测绘院,湖南,长沙,410000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.030
  CLC： X171.1
- Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
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Lin Tong, Feng Zhaohua, Wu Dafang, et al. Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecological Land in Karst Area Based on FLUS Model —A Case Study in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 219-227.
DOI：

Lin Tong, Feng Zhaohua, Wu Dafang, et al. Spatial-temporal Changes and Multi-scenario Prediction of Ecological Land in Karst Area Based on FLUS Model —A Case Study in Ningyuan County, Hunan Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 219-227. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.030.

摘要

[目的

]

分析近2000—2020年喀斯特地区生态用地数量分布特征，预测未来多情景下生态用地变化情况，寻求协调生态保护与发展建设的最优情景，为研究区未来国土空间开发保护，生态空间管控以及区域生态经济可持续发展提供科学参考。[方法

]

采用土地利用转移矩阵和动态度分析湖南省宁远县土地利用变化特点，基于FLUS模型，模拟预测2030年不同情景下生态用地数量及分布。[结果

]

①耕地主要集中在宁远县中部区域，林地、草地原生态用地主要分布在南北两端和西部。2020年，原生态用地中，林地所占比例为56.69%，草地所占比例为12.85%，水域为0.60%，半人工生态用地即耕地所占比例为27.80%。②多情景模拟结果显示：生态优先情景下，宁远县原生态用地中林地、草地、水域分别较2020年增加了15.12，37.35，23.67 hm

。③政策对喀斯特地区生态用地变化有着极大的导向作用，社会经济发展对水域的增加有显著影响。[结论

]

宁远县原生态用地所占比例高达70.14%。生态保护优先情景能够最大程度保障生态用地不被非生态用地侵占。在以建设森林城市为目标导向的情况下，宁远县及同类地区适宜采用该情景进行城市发展。

Abstract

[Objective] The quantity and distribution characteristics of ecological land in the karst area during 2000—2020 were analyzed and the changes in ecological land based on multi-scenario decisions in the future were predicted to seek the optimal scenario and coordinate ecological protection and development

in order to provide a theoretical foundation for the future land space development and protection

ecological space management and regional eco-economic sustainable development of the study area. [Methods] The land use transfer matrix and dynamic degree model was used to analyze the land-use change characteristics at Ningyuan County

Hunan Province. The FLUS (future land use simulation) model was used to simulate and predict the quantity and distribution of ecological land under different scenario decisions in 2030. [Results] ① Cultivated land was mainly concentrated in the central area of Ningyuan County

and the original ecological land of forest land and grassland was mainly distributed in the north

south

and west. Among the natural ecological land in 2020

forest land accounted for 56.69%

grassland for 12.85%

and water area for 0.60%

and semi-artificial ecological land of cultivated land

accounted for 27.80%. ② Under the ecological protection priority scenario

the forest land

grassland

and water area increased by 15.12

37.35

and 23.67 hm2

respectively

compared with those in 2020. ③ The policy had a significant regulating effect on the change of ecological land in the karst area

and socioeconomic development had a significant impact on water area increase. [Conclusion] The proportion of original ecological land in Ningyuan County is as high as 70.14%. The priority scenario of ecological protection ensures that ecological land is not occupied by non-ecological land at the maximum extent. This scenario is suitable for the urban development of Ningyuan County or the similar areas under the goal of building a forest city.

关键词

Keywords

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