Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City

Tao Xingyu; Liu Jinbao; Huang Zhigang; Ba Sang; Zhuo Ma; Chen Jun; Xiao Bin; Gao Yulian; Fei Xiaoyan

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.027

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City

- Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 42, Issue 2, Pages: 195-202(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 成都信息工程大学资源环境学院,四川,成都,610225
  2. 福建省气象服务中心,福建,福州,350001
  3. 西藏高原大气环境科学研究所,西藏,拉萨,850000
  4. 西藏自治区气候中心,西藏,拉萨,850000
  5. 北京师范大学地理学部,北京,100875
  6. 四川公众项目咨询管理有限公司,四川,成都,610051
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.027
  CLC： X43;P642.22
- Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Tao Xingyu, Liu Jinbao, Huang Zhigang, et al. Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 195-202.
DOI：

Tao Xingyu, Liu Jinbao, Huang Zhigang, et al. Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2022, 42(2): 195-202. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2022.02.027.

摘要

[目的] 对西藏自治区林芝市公路地质灾害易发性区划及气象预报模型进行研究，为实施该市境内公路沿线地质灾害气象预报提供理论依据。[方法] 首先，选取了林芝市公路沿线15 km缓冲区内的断层密度、土壤类型、坡度、沟谷密度、年降水量、土地利用、裸岩率和距河流的距离8个地质灾害易发性区划因子，通过信息量及逻辑回归方法确定各区划因子的系数，得到了地质灾害易发性区划模型；再进一步依据地质灾害发生当日、前1日、前2日和前3日的日降水数据，使用逻辑回归方法建立了地质灾害气象预报模型。[结果] 林芝市公路沿线15 km缓冲区内的大部分地区地质灾害易发性概率小于0.4，且离道路越近，地质灾害易发性概率越大。将该预报模型用于历史地质灾害点数据进行检验，发现该模型的预报准确率为85.71%，漏报率为14.29%。[结论] 受地形地貌、降水资料等影响，该模型预报结果可能与实际情况存在一定的偏差，但能反映基本趋势。

Abstract

[Objective] The susceptibility zoning and meteorological forecast model of highway geological hazards were studied in order to provide a theoretical basis for implementing the meteorological forecast of geological hazards along the highways in Linzhi City

Tebit Autonomous Region. [Methods] Firstly

eight zoning factors

including fault density

soil type

slope

valley density

annual precipitation

land use

bare rock ratio and distance from rivers

were selected in the 15 km buffer zone along the highway in Linzhi City. The coefficients of each zoning factor were determined by the information and logistic regression method

and the zoning model of geological hazard susceptibility was obtained. Secondly

based on the daily precipitation data of the rainfall occurrence day

the first day

the second and and the third day before the landslide hazards

a meteorological forecast model of geological hazards was established by using logistic regression method. [Results] The susceptibility of most areas in the 15 km buffer zone along the highway in Linzhi City was less than 0.4

and the closer to the road

the greater probability of geological hazard susceptibility. The accuracy rate of the model was 85.71%

and the failure rate was 14.29%. [Conclusion] Affected by topography

geomorphology and precipitation data

the prediction results of the established model may deviate from the actual situation

but it can reflect the basic trend.

关键词

Keywords

references

陈宫燕,普布桑姆,次仁,等.西藏林芝降水引发的山洪地质灾害分布特征[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(2):100-103.

陈豫英,赵光平,王红英,等.宁夏地质灾害气象预报预警研究[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(3):81-86.

Capparelli G, Pasquale I, Giulio G R, et al. Modelling the rainfall-induced mobilization of a large slope movement in Northern Calabria [J]. Natural Hazards, 2012,61(1):247-256.

景学义,王开宇,贾艳辉,等.哈尔滨市地质灾害气象诱因分析及监测预警[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(1):139-142.

颜如德,江洪,颜澜.闽东地质灾害气象预警等级预报研究[J].海峡科学,2020(6):26-27,89.

黎力,朱永亮,陈亮,等.重庆市地质灾害气象风险预警问题研究[J].安徽农业科学,2019,47(24):234-236,241.

李环禹,陈朝晖,范文亮,等.区域降雨型滑坡风险分析统计模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2018,27(4):103-111.

刘传正,李铁锋,温铭生,等.三峡库区地质灾害空间评价预警研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):9-19.

Keiko I, Sadohara S. Slope management planning for the mitigation of landside hazards in urban areas [J]. Journal or Asian Architecture and Building Engineering, 2006,5(1):183-190.

陈悦丽,陈德辉,李泽椿,等.降雨型滑坡的集合预报模型及其初步应用的试验研究[J].大气科学,2016,40(3):515-527.

Lepore C, Sameer A K, Peter S, et al. Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility zonation of Puerto Rico [J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2012,66(6):1667-1681.

张仲福.陇东黄土高原泥流灾害临界雨量研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2020,31(3):18-24.

狄靖月,许凤雯,李宇梅,等.东南地区引发地质灾害降水分型及阈值分析[J].灾害学,2019,34(1):62-67,93.

田述军,樊晓一.基于临界雨量的震后泥石流预测预报研究:以白沙河流域为例[J].自然灾害学报,2015,24(4):176-182.

余丰华,麻土华,张义顺,等.浙江省突发性地质灾害预警预报系统应用研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(1):36-39.

陈百炼,帅士章,吴战平.贵州省地质灾害气象预警系统[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2005,16(3):111-113,118.

徐玉琳,孙国曦,陆美兰,等.江苏省突发性地质灾害气象预警研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(1):46-50.

傅朝义,张鑫林,李再凯,等.广东省地质灾害预警信息系统流程设计[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(1):51-55.

李云君,刘志红,吕远洋,等.四川省滑坡灾害气象预警模型建立与验证[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(7):941-949.

温智熊,蓝俊康,梁一敏.广西龙胜县崩塌和滑坡地质灾害的气象预警预报[J].桂林理工大学学报,2018,38(3):464-468.

梁润娥,余志山,王延江,等.兰州市滑坡灾害预警模型研究[J].人民长江,2012, 43(S1):38-40.

费晓燕,柳锦宝,屈伯强,等.四川省降雨诱发滑坡灾害的气象预警模型[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(5):315-321,327.

陈宫燕,普布桑姆,次仁旺姆,等.基于Logistic回归方法的林芝市山洪地质灾害预警研究[J].中国农学通报,2019,35(23):124-130.

林旭,王兆博,付晓春,等.区域性地质灾害气象预报方法[J].吉林农业,2018(23):115.

丁伟翠,杨强,王爱军,等.陇东黄土区地质灾害气象预警方法与应用:以泾川县为例[J].地球信息科学,2011,13(6):811-818.

陈洪凯,唐红梅.川藏公路地质灾害危险性评价[J].公路,2011(9):17-23.

孟兆兴.基于GIS的川藏公路鲁朗—通麦段滑坡易发性评价[D].河北邯郸: 河北工程大学,2020.

李斌,彭福坦.西藏林芝地区原生植被保护和恢复研究[J].林业建设,2004(6):12-18.

张泽明,丁慧霞,董昕,等.冈底斯岩浆弧的形成与演化[J].岩石学报,2019,35(2):275-294.

宋涛,刁谦,真允庆.青藏高原地热资源与地幔柱构造的关系:地幔热柱多级演化导致岩浆上侵成为浅部热源[J].河北地质大学学报,2018,41(6):1-24.

刘晓.基于遥感与GIS的林芝中部地区地质灾害危险性评价研究[D].辽宁大连：辽宁师范大学,2019.

盛逸凡,李远耀,徐勇,等.基于有效降雨强度和逻辑回归的降雨型滑坡预测模型[J].水文地质工程地质,2019,46(1):156-162,172.

唐红梅,魏来,高阳华,等.基于逻辑回归的重庆地区降雨型滑坡预报模型[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2013,24(3):32-37.

黄润秋,李为乐.“5·12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(12):2585-2592.

张锡涛,刘翔宇,谢谟文,等.基于岩质滑坡引发泥石流的影响范围评价模型[J].工程地质学报,2013,21(4):598-606.

常鸣,唐川,苏永超,等.雅鲁藏布江米林段泥石流堆积扇危险范围预测模型[J].工程地质学报,2012,20(6):971-978.

刘传正,刘艳辉.地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究[J].水文地质工程地质,2007,34(6):109-115,125.

梁润娥,李中社,苗高建,等.区域地质灾害气象预警模型研究现状与展望[J].安全与环境工程,2013,20(1):30-35.

Views

805

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Research on Plant Protection for Loess Cutting Slope of Highway in Shaanxi Province

Eco-environmental Effects and Protection Countermeasures of Highways Construction Project in Mountain Area

Rainfall Condition and Meteorological Warning on Geological Hazards in Shimian County,Sichuan Province

Occurrence and Temporal-spatial Distribution Characteristics of Geological Hazards in Rongxian County in Southeast Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

Impacts of climate， land use and ecological governance on water ecosystem services in Haihe River basin

Related Author

ZHAO Zhi-sheng

NI Wan-kui

CHEN Zeng-jian

GAO De-bin

GAO Hai-dong

WANG Xiao-yan

MA Jun-jie

XU Wen-wen

Related Institution

Department of Geological Engineering and Survey, Chang’an University

Institute of Highway Survey and Design of Xi’an City

College of Highway Investigation and Design of Shaanxi Province

Department of Environmental Science, Northwestern University, Xian

Chengdu Institute of Geology and Mineral Resources, CGS

⁰