Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Multiple Scenarios Based on Markov-DLS Model in Jiangxi Province

Tian Yiduo; Mei Yun; Chen Yinrong

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.03.030

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Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Multiple Scenarios Based on Markov-DLS Model in Jiangxi Province

- Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Multiple Scenarios Based on Markov-DLS Model in Jiangxi Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 41, Issue 3, Pages: 218-227(2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  华中农业大学公共管理学院,湖北,武汉,430070
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.03.030
  CLC： F301.2
- Published：2021
- 稿件说明：
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Tian Yiduo, Mei Yun, Chen Yinrong. Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Multiple Scenarios Based on Markov-DLS Model in Jiangxi Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2021, 41(3): 218-227.
DOI：

Tian Yiduo, Mei Yun, Chen Yinrong. Analysis of Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Multiple Scenarios Based on Markov-DLS Model in Jiangxi Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2021, 41(3): 218-227. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.03.030.

摘要

[目的] 研究不同情景下未来土地利用结构数量和空间格局变化特征，为实现区域国土空间格局优化和生态环境保护提供决策参考。[方法] 基于Markov-DLS模型，在土地利用转移参数设置过程引入土地利用生产、生活和生态功能评价结果，分析江西省2030年均衡发展情景、粮食安全情景和生态优先情景下国土空间结构和格局变化特征。[结果] ①利用Markov-DLS模型模拟预测的2015年土地利用结构精度在90%以上，空间布局模拟精度达到了96%，kappa系数高达92%以上；②耕地仅在粮食安全情景下有所增长，增幅为0.48%。建设用地在3类情景下均处于增长态势，均衡发展情景下增长最快，增速为1.15%。林地、草地、水域和未利用地等生态用地在3类情景中整体上呈现下降趋势，生态优先情景下降速最慢，仅为-0.36%；③东、南、西部山区林地、草地空间格局相对稳定，而建设用地均呈现出沿江岸线，沿湖岸线发展的趋势，尤其是赣江沿岸和鄱阳湖北岸以及长江沿岸区域最为显著；④整体而言，生态优先情景下以林地、草地、水域和未利用地为核心的生态空间用地面积占比最大，相对下降速度最小。[结论] ①Markov-DLS模型对省级尺度未来土地利用变化预测模拟方面具有较好的适用性。②江西省2030年国土空间土地利用结构变化在均衡发展情景，粮食安全情景和生态优先情景下呈现出明显的差异性。③江西省2030年3类发展情景下国土空间格局呈现出明显的整体一致性和局部差异性特征。

Abstract

[Objective] The characteristics of future land use structure and spatial patterns under different scenarios were studied in order to provide a decision-making reference for the realization of optimal utilization of regional land spatial pattern and protection of ecology and environment. [Methods] Based on the Markov-DLS model and referring to the evaluation results of production-living-ecological functions of different land use

the characteristics of land use structure and spatial patterns under a balanced development scenario

a food security scenario

and an ecological priority scenario in Jiangxi Province in 2030 were analyzed. [Results] ① The accuracy of land use structure predicted by the Markov-DLS model in 2015 was more than 90%

and the accuracy of the spatial layout simulation was 96%. In addition

the kappa coefficient was more than 92%. ② Cultivated land increased only under the food security scenario

with an increase of 0.48%. Construction land showed a growth trend under the three scenarios

and the growth rate was the fastest in the balanced development scenario

reaching 1.15%. Ecological land (such as forest land

grassland

water area

and unused land) showed an overall downward trend in all three scenarios

but the decline was the smallest in the ecological priority scenario (only -0.36%). ③ The spatial patterns of forest land and grassland in the eastern

southern

and western mountainous areas of Jiangxi Province were relatively stable

while construction land showed a trend of development along shorelines of rivers and lakes

especially along the Ganjiang River

the Yangtze River

and the north bank of Poyang Lake. ④ On the whole

under the ecological priority scenario

the ecological space land (forest land

grassland

water area

and unused land) were protected

the area proportion was the largest of all the scenarios

and the relative decline rate was the smallest. [Conclusion] ① The Markov-DLS model has good applicability for predicting and simulating future land use changes at the provincial scale. ② Changes in land use structure in Jiangxi Province in 2030 under the balanced development scenario

the food security scenario

and the ecological priority scenario show obvious differences. ③ The spatial pattern of the land under the three development scenarios for Jiangxi Province in 2030 shows obvious characteristics of overall consistency and local differences.

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references

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