Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model

Zhang Mufeng; Liu Wanxia; Wang Jianen; Luo Xianqiang; Chen Ping; Gong Qinghua

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.01.022

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Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model

- Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 41, Issue 1, Pages: 152-160(2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 仲恺农业工程学院园艺园林学院,广东,广州,510225
  2. 广州地理研究所, 广东省地理空间信息技术与应用公共实验室,广东,广州,510070
  3. 南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室,广东,广州,511458
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.01.022
  CLC： X21;X171
- Published：2021
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Zhang Mufeng, Liu Wanxia, Wang Jianen, et al. Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2021, 41(1): 152-160.
DOI：

Zhang Mufeng, Liu Wanxia, Wang Jianen, et al. Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value Change in Dongguan Section of Shima River Basin Based on Clue-S Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2021, 41(1): 152-160. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2021.01.022.

摘要

[目的

]

探究生态系统服务价值演变的内在作用机制，旨在寻求以流域为单元的生态农业和城镇的优化配置模式。[方法

]

基于土地利用及生态服务价值相关理论与方法，以石马河流域东莞段2010-2020年土地利用数据为基础，利用Clue-S模型对2025年土地利用格局进行模拟，得出2025年区域在生态安全、耕地优先和建设发展3种情景下的土地利用空间布局和优化配置结果，分析各情景下流域生态系统服务价值时空格局。[结果

]

在2010-2020年，石马河流域东莞段生态服务价值下降了1.80×10

元，主要为耕地、林地、园地转出。2025年在耕地优先、生态安全、建设发展的情境下ESV分别为9.44×10

，9.62×10

，9.38×10

元，除了生态安全之外，其余两个情景较2020年生态系统服务价值ESV都有下滑。[结论

]

对处于快速城镇化发展且生态与发展矛盾突出的地区，进行流域生态系统服务价值进行模拟与分析，有利于增强对区域在不同发展模式下生态系统服务价值空间布局的认识和理解，为土地利用规划与生态经济协调发展提供宏观的参考。

Abstract

[Objective] To explore the intrinsic mechanism of ecosystem service value (ESV) evolution

an optimal allocation model for ecological agriculture with towns and river basins as units was investigated.[Methods] Based on the theories and methods of land use and ecological service value

with the Shima River basin land use data from 2010 to 2020

the Clue-S model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2025

and the results of land use spatial distribution and optimal allocation under three scenarios of ecological security

farmland priority and construction and development in 2025 were obtained

and the space-time pattern of watershed ESV under each scenario was analyzed.[Results] From 2010 to 2020

the ecological service value of the Dongguan section of the Shima River basin decreased by 1.80×107 yuan

which was mainly converted into cultivated land

forest and orchard. The ESVs were 9.44×107

9.62×107

and 9.38×107 yuan under the condition of giving priority to the ecological security of the construction and development of cultivated land in 2025. In addition to ecological security

the other two scenarios showed a decline from the ESV in 2020.[Conclusion] In areas with rapid urbanization and a prominent contradiction between ecology and development

the simulation and analysis of watershed ESV is helpful to enhance the understanding of the spatial distribution of ESVs under different development modes and to provide macroscopic reference for land use planning and coordinated development of an ecological economy.

关键词

Keywords

references

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