Multi-scale and Impacting Factors of Runoff Variation in Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin

Li Runjie; Li Shengfeng; Wu Senyao

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20200630.001

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Multi-scale and Impacting Factors of Runoff Variation in Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin

- Multi-scale and Impacting Factors of Runoff Variation in Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 40, Issue 4, Pages: 100-107(2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏,南京,210023
  2. 中国人民解放军61175部队,江苏,南京,210049
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20200630.001
  CLC： P95;P333.1
- Published：2020
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Li Runjie, Li Shengfeng, Wu Senyao. Multi-scale and Impacting Factors of Runoff Variation in Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2020, 40(4): 100-107.
DOI：

Li Runjie, Li Shengfeng, Wu Senyao. Multi-scale and Impacting Factors of Runoff Variation in Urbanized Qinhuai River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2020, 40(4): 100-107. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.20200630.001.

摘要

[目的] 探究城市化条件下的秦淮河流域径流多时间尺度变化特征及其内在联系，为定量分析气候变化和人类活动对流域水文循环演变研究提供科学依据。[方法] 以秦淮河流域为研究区，基于1986—2015年水文气象资料和不透水面数据，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Pettitt突变检验方法，分析秦淮河流域多时间尺度降雨和径流的变化特征，并通过建立广义可加模型GAMLSS，分析降雨和流域不透水面变化对不同时间尺度径流变化的影响。[结果] ①秦淮河流域不透水面在30 a间扩展迅速，从1988年的3.09%扩展至2015年的24.01%，增长了近8倍。②不同时间尺度下径流序列变化特征不同，其中年径流序列增加趋势显著，并在2001年发生突变。③不透水面对小洪水的影响较大。对于相同的时间尺度，一般情况下，流量小的径流序列受不透水面影响较大；对不同时间尺度，不透水面具有累积效应，随着时间尺度增大，不透水面对径流的影响增强。[结论] 秦淮河流域城市化进程不断加快，不透水面扩张对不同时间尺度径流影响程度不同。

Abstract

[Objective] The characteristics and internal relations for multiple time scale runoff in urbanized Qinhuai River basin were explored in order to provide scientific basis for quantitatively evaluating the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the process of water cycle. [Methods] Based on the long-term hydro-meteorological and impervious surface data during 1986—2015 in Qinhuai River basin

the Mann-Kendall trend test and Pettitt change-point test were combined to identify the trends and abrupt change points of the precipitation and runoff series. The influence of rainfall and impevious coverage on runoff changes at different time scales was analyzed by using established generalized additive models for location

scale and shape (GAMLSS) framework. [Results] ① The impervious surface had expanded rapidly in 30 years

with the impervious rate increased from 3.09% in 1988 to 24.01% in 2015. ② The characteristics of runoff series at different time scales were various

and the annual runoff series showed a significantly upward trend with an obvious abrupt change point at 2001. ③ The impervious surface expansion had a more significant impact on small intensity flood

for the same time scale

normally

the impervious surface had a greater impact on small runoff series than on high runoff series. Further

the imperviousness has cumulative effect with the increase of time scale. [Conclusion] The urbanization process of Qinhuai River basin is accelerating

and the effects of impervious surface expansion on multiple time scale runoff are various.

关键词

Keywords

references

綦昕瑶,刘贵花,贺志明,等.东江源寻乌水流域径流变化特征及其原因分析[J].江西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2020,44(1):89-94.

Miller J D, Kim H, Kjeldsen T R, et al. Assessing the impact of urbanization on storm runoff in a peri-urban catchment using historical change in impervious cover[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2014,515:59-70.

Delmonte O K, Tomasella J, Del'Arco Sanches L. Spatial-temporal analysis of the climatic and anthropogenic influences on runoff in the Jucu River Basin, Southeastern Brazil[J]. Land Degradation & Development, 2019,30(17):2073-2087.

Piniewski M, Voss F, Bärlund I, et al. Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2013,58(4):737-754.

尚星星.气候与土地利用变化对地表径流的影响研究[D].陕西西安:西北大学,2019.

Xianbang W, Kangning H, Ying L, et al. Estimation of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in different time scales in the Beichuan River Basin, China[J]. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment:An International Journal, 2020,26(1):103-119.

周旭.变化环境下秃尾河流域径流演变规律研究[D].陕西杨凌:西北农林科技大学,2012.

Xie Ping, Wu Ziyi, Sang Yanfang, et al. Evaluation of the significance of abrupt changes in precipitation and runoff process in China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2018,560:451-460.

肉孜买买提·阿不来提,穆振侠.新疆伊犁地区巩乃斯河流域1972-2015年气温及降水时间序列的变化特征及趋势分析[J].地下水,2018,40(6):162-165.

王念,田庆春.基于Mann-Kendall方法的1954-2015年临汾市气候变化特征分析[J].现代农业科技,2019(13):175-178.

黄涛,于照玉.甘肃省兰州市近40年降雨特征分析及预测[J].环境工程,2017(35):655-659,611.

李艺珍,岳春芳.金沟河流域径流极值时间序列平稳性检验[J].水电能源科学.2019,37(10):21-24.

管晓祥,张建云,鞠琴,等.多种方法在水文关键要素一致性检验中的比较[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2018,39(2):51-56.

孔波,樊晶晶,黄强.北洛河流域分期径流变异诊断及成因分析[J].水资源保护,2019,35(6):52-57.

陈立华,刘为福,冷刚,等.西江干流径流年际及年内变化趋势分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2018,16(4):74-81.

陈玫君.基于Budyko假设下的黄土高原典型流域径流变化原因辨析[D].北京:中国科学院大学(中国科学院教育部水土保持与生态环境研究中心),2019.

Wang Xiujie, Bernard Engel, Yuan Ximin, et al. Variation analysis of streamflows from 1956 to 2016 along the Yellow River, China[J]. Water, 2018,10(9):1231.

顾海挺,谢平,雷旭.东江流域枯水径流变异根本原因分析[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(6):20-29.

Hung C J, James L A, Carbone G J, et al. Impacts of combined land-use and climate change on streamflow in two nested catchments in the Southeastern United States[J]. Ecological Engineering, 2020,143:105665.

Lu Jiqiang, Mo Shuhong, Luo Pingping, et al. A quantitative assessment of hydrological responses to climate change and human activities at spatiotemporal within a typical catchment on the Loess Plateau, China[J]. Quaternary International, 2019,527:1-11.

Zhang Yu, Zhong Pingan, Chen Juan, et al. Impacts of climate change and human activities on the Three Gorges reservoir inflow[J]. Water, 2017,9(12):957.

魏晓婷,黄生志,黄强,等.定量分解气候变化与人类活动对季节径流变异的贡献率[J].水土保持学报,2019,33(6):182-189.

王少丽,臧敏,王亚娟,等.降水和下垫面对流域径流量影响的定量研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2019,30(6):1-5.

Medeiros E S, Lima R R, Olinda R A, et al. Space-time Kriging of precipitation:Modeling the large-scale variation with model GAMLSS[J]. Water, 2019,11(11):2368.

张冬冬,鲁帆,周翔南,等.基于GAMLSS模型的大渡河流域极值降水非一致性分析[J].水利水电技术,2016,47(5):12-15.

李凌琪,熊立华,江聪,等.气温对长江上游巴塘站年径流的影响分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(7):1142-1149.

牛胜利.城市化空间格局对流域水文的影响分析[D].河南郑州:河南农业大学,2019.

余琪.广州市不透水面扩张对地表径流的影响研究[D].广东广州:广州大学,2018.

林立清.近50年来上海地区不透水面变化的水文效应及水环境阈值效应研究[D].上海:上海大学,2014.

苏贤保.黄河上游径流复杂性多尺度特征及其驱动机制研究[D].甘肃兰州:兰州大学,2019.

宋明明,都金康,郑文龙,等.秦淮河流域近30 a不透水面景观格局时空演变研究[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(2):238-247.

徐宗学,张楠.黄河流域近50年降水变化趋势分析[J].地理研究,2006,25(1):27-34.

孙玉燕.淮河中上游地表径流时空演变规律及非平稳性诊断研究[D].安徽芜湖:安徽师范大学,2019.

高洁.基于GAMLSS模型的水文系列非平稳性研究[J].水力发电,2019,45(7):1-6.

张静,陈爽.近40年来蒲河流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].人民珠江,2019,40(4):65-69.

Silva C M, Silva G B L. Cumulative effect of the disconnection of impervious areas within residential lots on runoff generation and temporal patterns in a small urban area[J]. Journal of Environmental Management, 2020,253:109719.

代晓颖,许有鹏,林芷欣,等.长江下游秦淮河流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].水土保持研究,2019,26(4):68-73.

刘珍环,曾祥坤.深圳市不透水表面扩展对径流量的影响[J].水资源保护,2013(4):44-50.

占红.城市不透水面的扩张对地表径流量的影响[D].黑龙江哈尔滨:哈尔滨师范大学,2016.

李倩.秦淮河流域城市化空间格局变化及其水文效应[D].江苏南京:南京大学,2012.

Views

1254

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and ecosystem service value in Lanzhou-Xining urban agglomeration

Correlation Analysis between Arable Land Resource and Urbanization Development in He'nan Province

Optimal Allocation of Water and Land Resource System Coupling in the Process of Urbanization

Analysis of Growth Drags to Land and Water Resources in Urbanization——A Case Study of Xi'an City

Land Use Change and Its Driving Factors in Rapidly Urbanized Area Based on Remote Sensing——A Case Study of Dongguan City,Guangdong Province

Related Author

Ying Hongkang

Wang Cheng

Liu Yirui

Ma Xiaomei

Li Xiaoling

He Liming

FAN Hui

CHEN Chao

Related Institution

School of Public Administration， Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

School of Civil Engineering and Hydraulic Engineering， Qinghai University

College of Urban and Environmental Science, Xinyang Normal University,, He’nan

Institute of Water Resources and Hydro-Electric Engineering, Xi’an University of Technology

Department of Environmental Science, Northwestern University

⁰