Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and its Spatial-temporal Response to Ecological Risk in Guangzhou City

Li Weiqi; Lan Zeying; Chen Dequan; Zheng Zhijian

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.04.028

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Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and its Spatial-temporal Response to Ecological Risk in Guangzhou City

- Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and its Spatial-temporal Response to Ecological Risk in Guangzhou City
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 40, Issue 4, Pages: 204-210(2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  广东工业大学管理学院,广东,广州,510520
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.04.028
  CLC： X826;F301.2
- Published：2020
- 稿件说明：
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Li Weiqi, Lan Zeying, Chen Dequan, et al. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and its Spatial-temporal Response to Ecological Risk in Guangzhou City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2020, 40(4): 204-210.
DOI：

Li Weiqi, Lan Zeying, Chen Dequan, et al. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and its Spatial-temporal Response to Ecological Risk in Guangzhou City[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2020, 40(4): 204-210. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.04.028.

摘要

[目的] 探讨景观生态风险对土地利用格局变化的响应规律，为促进土地资源可持续利用和维护区域生态安全提供科学支持。[方法] 基于2001—2017年广州市土地利用演变情况，利用未来土地利用模拟（FLUS）模型模拟2025年自然发展情景与“三线”（生态保护红线、永久基本农田保护红线、城镇开发边界线）约束情景下的土地利用空间分布；构建景观生态风险评价模型，进而分析广州市景观生态风险状况及其对土地利用变化的时空响应。[结果] 2001—2017年，建设用地的面积大幅增加，其他用地类型面积均不断减少；建设用地、草地和未利用地的变化幅度较大。相较于2017年，广州市2025年自然发展情景下建设用地持续扩张；而“三线”约束情景下建设用地的扩张得到制约，林地、水域等用地面积减少幅度有所缓和，耕地反而略微增加。2001—2017年，广州市景观生态风险指数不断上升，风险等级空间分布呈现圈层状结构，由中心城区向外围递减，低、较低生态风险区规模总体缩小，而较高、高生态风险区规模逐渐增大。[结论] 与2017年相比，2025年两种情景下的景观生态风险指数均有所提高，而“三线”约束情景下生态风险指数增幅较小，更符合广州市未来城市建设和生态保护的需要。

Abstract

[Objective] The response of landscape ecological risk to the change of land use pattern was explored in order to provide scientific support for promoting the sustainable use of land resources and maintaining regional ecological security. [Methods] Based on the evolution of land use in Guangzhou City from 2001 to 2017

the future land use simulation (FLUS) model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of land use under the natural development scenario and the “three-line” (ecological protection red lines

permanent basic farmland protection red lines

urban development boundary lines) constraint scenario in 2025. Then the landscape ecological risk assessment model was constructed to analyze the situation of landscape ecological risk and its spatial-temporal response to land use change in Guangzhou City. [Results] From 2001 to 2017

the area of construction land continued to increase

while the area of other land types continued to decrease. The change range of grassland

construction land and unused land was larger. Compared with 2017

the construction land was expected to expand significantly under the natural development scenario of Guangzhou City in 2025. The expansion of construction land would be restricted under the “three lines” constraint scenario

the reduction of land area such as forest land and water area was expected to decrease

while the cultivated land was expected to increase slightly. From 2001 to 2017

the landscape ecological risk index of Guangzhou City increased continuously. The spatial distribution of risk levels showed a circle layered structure with high center and low surrounding. The scale of low and lower ecological risk areas was reduced

while the scale of high and higher ecological risk areas was increased gradually. [Conclusion] Compared with 2017

the landscape ecological risk index under the two scenarios will increase in 2025

while the ecological risk index under the “three-line” constraint scenario has a smaller increase

which is more in line with the needs of future urban construction and ecological protection of Guangzhou City.

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