Characteristics of Land Use Change in Qingshui River Watershed in Upper Reaches of Haihe River

Liu Mengzhu; Zhang Hongjuan; Yang Jia; Pei Hongwei

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.03.021

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Characteristics of Land Use Change in Qingshui River Watershed in Upper Reaches of Haihe River

- Characteristics of Land Use Change in Qingshui River Watershed in Upper Reaches of Haihe River
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 40, Issue 3, Pages: 147-154(2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  河北建筑工程学院市政与环境工程系,河北,张家口,075000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.03.021
  CLC： F301.2
- Published：2020
- 稿件说明：
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Liu Mengzhu, Zhang Hongjuan, Yang Jia, et al. Characteristics of Land Use Change in Qingshui River Watershed in Upper Reaches of Haihe River[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2020, 40(3): 147-154.
DOI：

Liu Mengzhu, Zhang Hongjuan, Yang Jia, et al. Characteristics of Land Use Change in Qingshui River Watershed in Upper Reaches of Haihe River[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2020, 40(3): 147-154. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2020.03.021.

摘要

[目的

]

海河上游清水河流域处于半湿润向半干旱过渡的生态环境脆弱区，研究该地区土地利用时空变化规律，旨在为当地生态环境建设提供一定的决策依据。[方法

]

基于清水河流域1990—2018年4期Landsat遥感影像解译的土地利用数据，在优选的最佳空间尺度下通过Logistic-CA-Markov模型对清水河流域土地利用变化进行分析和预测。[结果

]

①近30 a来清水河流域土地结构主要以耕地、林地、草地为主，三者面积之和比例超过总量的96%；其中，建设用地面积持续增加且变化程度最剧烈。②通过对受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线进行拟合优度评价，在100 m×100 m空间尺度下，各个地类ROC值达到最优水平。③2018—2027年间，草地和水域面积预计分别减少42.44，5.43 km

，耕地、林地和建设用地面积分别增加16.51，16.89，14.67 km

。[结论

]

①100 m×100 m是针对具有典型小流域特征的清水河流域进行预测模拟研究的最合适尺度；②因2022冬奥会的筹备促使建设用地的开发力度加大将成为未来清水河流域土地格局变化的主要因素。

Abstract

[Objective] The Qingshui River watershed in the upper reaches of the Haihe River is located in a fragile ecological region where climate varies from arid to semiarid. The spatiotemporal variation of land use in this region was studied for local decision making on ecological construction.[Methods] Based on land use data interpreted from Landsat remote-sensing images at four periods during 1990-2018

the land use changes of the Qingshui River watershed were analyzed and predicted by using the logistic-CA-Markov model under an optimal space scale.[Results] ① During the past 30 years

the land use of the Qingshui River mainly consisted of cultivated land

forest land

and grassland

and the total area of these three land use types accounted for more than 96% of the study area. The area of construction land increased

and its change intensity was the maximum. ② The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) value of each land type reached the best level at a scale of 100 m×100 m

which was obtained based on the goodness-of-fit tests for ROC curves. ③ The area of grassland and water area would decrease by 42.44 and 5.43 km2

respectively

from 2018 to 2027. The areas of cultivated land

forest land

and construction land would increase by 16.51

16.89

and 14.67 km2

respectively.[Conclusions] ① The scale of 100 m×100 m was the suitable space scale for the prediction simulation on a typical small watershed

such as the Qingshui River watershed. ② The preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics drastically accelerated the exploitation intensity of construction land

and they were the dominant driver of the land structure change in the Qingshui River watershed.

关键词

Keywords

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