Impacts of Land Use Change Evaluation on Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models—Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an Example

Huang Kang; Dai Wenyuan; Huang Wanli; Ou Hui; Hu Hangxiao

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.06.023

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Impacts of Land Use Change Evaluation on Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models—Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an Example

- Impacts of Land Use Change Evaluation on Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models—Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an Example
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 39, Issue 6, Pages: 155-162(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建,福州,350007
  2. 福建师范大学地理研究所,福建,福州,350007
  3. 福建师范大学湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福建,福州,350007
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.06.023
  CLC：
- Published：2019
- 稿件说明：
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Huang Kang, Dai Wenyuan, Huang Wanli, et al. Impacts of Land Use Change Evaluation on Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models—Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an Example[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2019, 39(6): 155-162.
DOI：

Huang Kang, Dai Wenyuan, Huang Wanli, et al. Impacts of Land Use Change Evaluation on Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models—Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an Example[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2019, 39(6): 155-162. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.06.023.

摘要

[目的

]

研究福建省福州新区近15 a来的土地利用变化并对未来15 a的变化进行预测，并对30 a的生境质量变化进行分析；将预测结果与规划形成对比，为土地利用规划提供参考。[方法

]

以福建省福州新区为例，基于2000年Landsat_ETM

和2015年Landsat_OLT遥感影像解译的土地利用数据，对国家级新区——福州新区的土地利用动态变化进行空间分析，运用CA-Markov模型对其2030年的土地利用格局进行预测。在此基础上，进一步采用InVEST模型对新区内过去，现在和未来的生境质量进行评价。[结果

]

①15 a间福州新区耕地、林地、水域和建设用地变化速度较快，草地和海域变化相对较小，未利用地变化较小但变化较为剧烈；②CA-Markov模型预测显示研究区2015—2030年土地利用变化趋势与2000—2015年大体相同，表现为除未利用地呈现增加的趋势外，建设用地和生态用地分别呈现急剧扩张和持续减少的趋势；③2000—2030年研究区内大量耕地、林地、草地和水域向建设用地转化，导致威胁源的增加，进一步降低了生境质量。[结论

]

福州新区由于建设用地快速扩张导致区内生境质量严重下降，应加强生态保育，合理控制建设用地的增长，避免生境质量进一步恶化。建议将2030年用地规划中的建设用地边界作为限制建设区边界，将预测结果作为允许建设区边界，提高建设用地的集约利用程度。

Abstract

[Objective] This paper studies the land use change in Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province from 2000 to 2015

forecasts the land use pattern in 2030

analyzes the habitat quality change in 2000-2030

and compares the predicted results with the overall planning of the new district

in order to provide a reference for the rational use of land resources in the later stage of the new district.[Methods] Taking Fuzhou New District of Fujian Province as an example

based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2015

which was interpreted by Landsat_ETM+ and Landsat_OLI remote sensing image

the spatial analysis model of land use change was used to analyze the dynamic change of land use in Fuzhou New District

and the CA-Markov model was used to predict the land use pattern in 2030. On this basis

the past

present and future habitat qualities in the new district were further evaluated by the InVEST model.[Results] ① During 2000-2015

the cultivated land

forest land

water area and construction land in Fuzhou New District changed rapidly

the change of grassland and sea area was relatively small

and the change of unused land area was relatively small

but the transfer in and out was more intense; ② CA-Markov model prediction showed that the change trend of land use in the study area in 2015-2030 was basically the same as that in 2000-2015. In addition to the increasing trend of unused land

the construction land and ecological land showed the trend of rapid expansion and continuous reduction respectively; ③ From 2000 to 2030

a large number of cultivated land

forest land

grassland and water area in the study area transformed into construction land

resulting in the increase of threat sources and further reducing the habitat quality.[Conclusion] Due to the rapid expansion of construction land in Fuzhou New District

the quality of habitat in the area is seriously reduced. We should strengthen ecological conservation

reasonably control the growth of construction land

and avoid the further deterioration of habitat quality. The boundary of construction land in 2030 land use planning should be taken as the boundary of restricted construction area

and the predicted result should be taken as the boundary of permitted construction area

so as to improve the intensive utilization of construction land.

关键词

Keywords

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