Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100

Ren Jingyu; Zhao Junxia; Ma Hongbin; Peng Shouzhang; Li Bingyin

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.037

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Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100

- Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 39, Issue 5, Pages: 262-271(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 水利部黄河水利委员会黄河上中游管理局,陕西,西安,710021
  2. 西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室, 陕西杨凌,712100
  3. 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所, 陕西杨凌,712100
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.037
  CLC： P467
- Published：2019
- 稿件说明：
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Ren Jingyu, Zhao Junxia, Ma Hongbin, et al. Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2019, 39(5): 262-271.
DOI：

Ren Jingyu, Zhao Junxia, Ma Hongbin, et al. Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Seasonal Climate Change Trends Over Loess Plateau During 2015-2100[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2019, 39(5): 262-271. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.037.

摘要

[目的] 研究黄土高原2015-2100年四季气候的时空变化及趋势，为该区应对全球气候变化制定适应性策略时提供科学依据。[方法] 基于27个GCMs 2015-2100年逐月气候数据集，利用Delta空间降尺度方法对该数据集在黄土高原地区进行降尺度处理并评价，最后采用距平、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和Sen's斜率估计方法分析该区未来时期四季气候变化的时空分布特征。[结果] ①所用27个GCMs，最适合模拟黄土高原未来时期四季月均温和月降水量降尺度的气候模式分别是NorESM1-M和GFDL-ESM2M模式。②2015-2100年该区四季均温只有典型路径（RCP）2.6情景下的春季、秋季无显著变化趋势，其余情景下均呈显著上升趋势；四季降水量只有RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的春季呈显著上升趋势，其余排放情景下均无显著变化趋势。③3种RCP情景下，四季均温在21世纪初期、中期和末期相比于气候平均值均是增加的，降水量只在春季均是增加的。④3种RCP情景下，四季均温和降水量趋势在空间分布上具有很大差异。[结论] 黄土高原区域气候对全球气候变暖有显著响应，对于造成未来时期黄土高原区域特定季节下气候变化的成因等问题，还需展开进一步的研究。

Abstract

[Objective] Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the climate change trends during 2015-2100 in the four seasons for the Loess Plateau were studied to provide a scientific basis for formulating adaptive strategies to cope with global climate change.[Methods] Based on the monthly climate datasets of 27 general circulation models (GCMs) from 2015 to 2100

the Delta method was used to process and evaluate the dataset of the Loess Plateau. At the same time

the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator test were used to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the future climate change trends of this region in all seasons.[Results] ① Among the 27 GCMs used

NorESM1-M and GFDL-ESM2M were the most suitable climate models for simulating the downscaling data of the future monthly mean temperature and precipitation of the Loess Plateau in all seasons. ② There was no significant trend of the mean temperature over the Loess Plateau from 2015 to 2100 in the spring and autumn under the representative concentration pathways(RCP)2.6 scenario

and in the remaining scenarios

the temperature showed a significant upward trend. Precipitation during the four seasons showed a significant upward trend in the spring under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios

while there was no significant trend in the remaining emission scenarios. ③ Under the three kinds of RCP scenarios

the mean temperature of the four seasons increased in the beginning

middle

and end of the 21st century

compared with the climate average; however

the precipitation increased only in spring. ④ Under the three kinds of RCP scenarios

significant differences in the spatial distribution of the mean temperature and precipitation in all seasons were observed.[Conclusion] The climate of the Loess Plateau has a significant response to global warming

and further research is needed on the causes of climate change in the Loess Plateau region in a specific season in the future.

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