Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Vegetation Cover in Central Part of Xilingol Grassland During 1977-2017

Ailiya; Wang Shaojun; Zhang Zhi

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.035

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Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Vegetation Cover in Central Part of Xilingol Grassland During 1977-2017

- Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Vegetation Cover in Central Part of Xilingol Grassland During 1977-2017
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 39, Issue 5, Pages: 249-256(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国地质大学(武汉) 地理与信息工程学院,湖北,武汉,430074
  2. 中国地质大学(武汉) 地球物理与空间信息学院,湖北,武汉,430074
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.035
  CLC： X853;TP753
- Published：2019
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Ailiya, Wang Shaojun, Zhang Zhi. Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Vegetation Cover in Central Part of Xilingol Grassland During 1977-2017[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2019, 39(5): 249-256.
DOI：

Ailiya, Wang Shaojun, Zhang Zhi. Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Vegetation Cover in Central Part of Xilingol Grassland During 1977-2017[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2019, 39(5): 249-256. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2019.05.035.

摘要

[目的

]

分析内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟锡林浩特市和阿巴嘎旗植被覆盖变化状况、影响因素及发展趋势，为区域生态环境保护和治理提供科学参考。[方法

]

基于5期Landsat影像反演1977-2017年间植被覆盖时空变化，结合气候及社会经济数据探讨其演化影响因素，通过CA-Markov模型预测2025年植被覆盖状况。[结果

]

①在时间上，植被覆盖显示以2000年为拐点先下降后缓慢上升状态；1977-2000年间，中、高植被覆盖面积合计变化-27 862.42 km

，2000-2017年间合计变化16 649.44 km

。②在空间上，中部植被覆盖变化大，北部、东部变化较小。局地上，自然保护区内植被覆盖保持良好状态；采矿等活动导致周边植被覆盖的下降；城镇用地等生活空间的扩张对周围植被覆盖变化影响较小。③气候变化是植被覆盖变化的基本驱动力，人为因素起主要影响作用，生态建设工程、畜牧量控制等起正向影响；畜牧量过载、采矿等起负向影响。④2025年预测结果显示植被覆盖上升，持续恢复，但恢复程度不理想。[结论

]

应坚持绿水青山就是金山银山的发展理念，加大生态环境建设力度，"努力把内蒙古建成中国北方重要的生态安全屏障"。

Abstract

[Objective] The changes

influencing factors

and development trends of vegetation cover in Xilinhot City and Abaga Banner

Xilingol League

Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were analyzed to provide a scientific reference for regional ecological and environmental protection and governance.[Methods] Landsat images in five phases were used to obtain the spatial-temporal evolution of vegetation coverage from 1977 to 2017

which was combined with climate and social-economic data as a means of exploring influencing factors. The CA-Markov model was also used to predict the vegetation coverage in 2025.[Results] ① In terms of time

the vegetation coverage showed a state of decrease from 1977 but then began to slowly increase after 2000. The median and high vegetation coverage area changed in two periods:-27 862.42 km2 during 1977-2000 and 16 649.44 km2 during 2000-2017. ② Spatially

the vegetation cover in the central part of the study area changed greatly

while that in the northern and eastern regions changed little. In a local ecological nature reserve

the vegetation cover changed little

whereas mining and other production activities caused the decline of surrounding vegetation cover

but urban land use and expansion of accommodation had little impact on the surrounding vegetation cover change. ③ Climate change was the basic driving force

and human factors were the main influencing factor. Ecological construction projects and livestock quantity control had positive effects

whereas livestock quantity overload and mineral exploitation had negative effects. ④ The predicted results for 2025 suggest that vegetation cover will increase and maintain a state of recovery

but that the degree of recovery was not very good.[Conclusion] People in the study area need to focus on the development concept "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets". An increase in construction efforts for providing ecological and environmental security services is needed to make Inner Mongolia an important ecological security barrier in northern China.

关键词

Keywords

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