Dynamic Correlation Between Industrial Water Consumption and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model—A Case Study in Bijie City of Guizhou Province

ZHOU Feng; SU Weici; ZHENG Qunwei

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.043

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Dynamic Correlation Between Industrial Water Consumption and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model—A Case Study in Bijie City of Guizhou Province

- Dynamic Correlation Between Industrial Water Consumption and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model—A Case Study in Bijie City of Guizhou Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 38, Issue 6, Pages: 283-292(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 重庆师范大学地理与旅游学院,重庆,401331
  2. 贵州省山地资源研究所,贵州,贵阳,550001
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.043
  CLC：
- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
ZHOU Feng, SU Weici, ZHENG Qunwei. Dynamic Correlation Between Industrial Water Consumption and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model—A Case Study in Bijie City of Guizhou Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(6): 283-292.
DOI：

ZHOU Feng, SU Weici, ZHENG Qunwei. Dynamic Correlation Between Industrial Water Consumption and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model—A Case Study in Bijie City of Guizhou Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(6): 283-292. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.06.043.

摘要

[目的] 对岩溶生态脆弱区经济高速发展的产业用水与经济增长的动态关联性进行研究，为该区水资源与社会经济可持续及协调发展提供决策参考。[方法] 以贵州省毕节市为例，运用向量自回归模型，通过ADF检验、协整性检验和Granger因果检验后进行了广义脉冲响应和方差分解分析，对2001—2016年的经济产值和产业用水间的均衡关系及动态关联性进行分析。[结果] ①农业产值与农业用水量、工业产值与工业用水量、生产总值与总用水量相互间均存在长期均衡关系；②农业产值对农业用水量、工业用水量对工业产值冲击响应值为正，其他均为负向冲击响应； ③工业用水量对工业产值的平均方差分解贡献度最大（为54.584%），农业用水量对农业产值的平均方差分解贡献度最小（为1.629 7%），其他变量间的方差分解贡献度均比较大，说明毕节市的发展仍需要大量水资源的开发利用。[结论] 农业用水量对农业产值的促进作用较小，工业用水量对工业产值的增加有较强的促进作用，但工业用水量不足对工业发展已存在一定的负面作用，伴随着经济的进一步增长需加强生产、节水技术等的投入。

Abstract

[Objective] The objective of this study is to present practical research on the long-term equilibrium relationship between utilization of water resources and economic growth and provide decision reference for the sustainable and coordinated development of water resources and social economy in karst ecologically fragile areas with rapid economic development.[Methods] Selected Bijie City of Guizhou Province as a case study

and employed the VAR(vector autoregressive) model for analysis. The equilibrium relationship between utilization of water resources and economic growth of the industrial system in Bijie City from 2001 to 2016 was analyzed by ADF smoothness test

co-integration test and granger causality test

generalized impulse response and variance decomposition analysis.[Results] ① There existed long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and total water consumption

agricultural output and agricultural water consumption

industrial output value and industrial water consumption; ② The impulse response of agricultural output value to agricultural water consumption and industrial water consumption to industrial output value was positive

and the others were negative; ③ The contribution of industrial water consumption to the average variance decomposition of industrial output value was 54.584%

the contribution of agricultural water consumption to agricultural output value was 1.629 7%

and the variance contribution of other variables was relatively large

indicating that development still requires a lot of water resources development and utilization.[Conclusion] The effect of agricultural water consumptione on promoting agricultural output value was little

and industrial water consumption on the increase of industrial output value was strong. However

the shortage of industrial water consumption impedes industrial development. Along with economic growth

the investment in production and water saving technologies should be further strengthened.

关键词

Keywords

references

杜湘红,张涛.水资源环境与社会经济系统耦合发展的仿真模拟:以洞庭湖生态经济区为例[J].地理科学,2015,35(9):1109-1115.

Kallis. Coevolution in water resource development:The vicious cycle of water supply and demand in Athens, Greece[J]. Ecological Economics, 2010,69(4):796-809.

Lily A. Peters H, Chang H J. Urban water demand modeling:Review of concepts, methods, and organizing principles[J]. Water Resources Research, 2011,47(5):1-15.

Hussain I, Hussain Z, Maqbool H S, et al. Water balance, supply and demand and irrigation efficiency of Indus basin[J]. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 2011,49(1):13-38.

Khare D, Jat M K, Sunder D. Assessment of water resources allocation options:Conjunctive use planning in a link canal command[J]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2007,51(2):487-506.

Abed E A, Kerachian R. Water resources allocation using a cooperative game with Fuzzy Payoffs and Fuzzy Coalitions[J]. Water Resources Management, 2012.26(13):3961-3976.

Das B, Singh A, Panda S N, et al. Optimal land and water resources allocation policies for sustainable irrigated agriculture[J]. Land Use Policy, 2015,42:527-537.

Yang Y, Hubacek K, Feng K S, et al. Assessing regional and global water footprints for the UK[J]. Ecological Economics, 2010,69(5):1140-1147.

Egan M. The water footprint assessment manual. Setting the global standard[J]. Social and Environmental Accountability Journal, 2011,31(2):181-182.

Mekonnen M, Hoekstra A Y. The green, blue and grey water footprint of crops and derived crops products[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2011,8(47):763-809.

Daniel P L. Sustainable water resources management[J]. Water International, 2009,25(1):3-10.

Haasnoot M, Middelkoop H, Beek E. A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future[J]. Sustainable Development, 2009,19(6):369-381.

张凤太,苏维词.水资源与经济社会系统耦合协调时空分异研究:以贵州省为例[J].人民长江,2016,47(10):25-30.

童彦,施玉,朱海燕,等.云南水资源与经济社会发展协调度的空间格局研究[J].节水灌溉,2016(6):75-79.

郭唯,左其亭,马军霞.河南省人口-水资源-经济和谐发展时空变化分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(11):2251-2260.

伏吉芮,瓦哈甫·哈力克,姚一平.吐鲁番地区水资源-经济-生态耦合协调发展分析[J].节水灌溉,2016(12):94-98.

张晓涛,于法稳.黄河流域经济发展与水资源匹配状况分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(10):1-6.

绒丽丽,胡继连.区域经济增长与水资源环境协调发展的钩状况评价:基于山东省的实证分析[J].区域经济,2016(12):192-195.

吴丹.中国经济发展与水资源利用脱钩态势评价与展望[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(1):46-54.

赵岩,黄鑫鑫,王红瑞,等.基于区间数多目标规划的河北省水资源与产业结构优化[J].自然资源学报,2016,31(7):1241-1250.

李荣胜.基于VAR模型的郑汴产业结构升级一体化研究[J].经济地理,2017,37(1):123-128.

潘丹,应瑞瑶.中国水资源与农业经济增长关系研究:基于面板VAR模型[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(1):161-166.

李青,陈红梅,王雅鹏.基于面板VAR模型的新疆农业用水与农业经济增长的互动效应研究[J].资源科学,2014,36(8):1679-1685.

邓朝晖,刘洋,薛惠锋.基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(6):128-135.

张振龙,孙慧.基于VAR模型的新疆区域水资源对产业生态系统与经济增长的动态关联性研究[J].生态学报,2017,37(16):1-12.

杨振华,苏维词,赵卫权.岩溶地区水资源与经济发展脱钩分析[J].经济地理,2016,36(10):159-165.

周亮广,梁虹.贵州省水资源与人口和经济发展的区域配置状况分析[J].水土保持通报,2008,28(3):186-188.

易武英,苏维词.典型喀斯特城市水资源与社会经济发展耦合度评价:以贵阳市为例[J].中国岩溶,2012,31(4):402-408.

张军以,王腊春,苏维词,等.岩溶地区人类活动的水文效应研究现状及展望[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(8):1125-1135.

贵州省水利厅.贵州省水资源公报2016年[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2016.

贵州省统计局.贵州省统计年鉴2016年[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.

杨先明,汪斌.结构变化与产业成长[M].云南昆明:云南大学出版社,2004.

汪奎,邵东国,顾文权,等.中国用水量与经济增长的脱钩分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2011,30(3):34-38.

马丽君,龙云.基于社会网络分析法的中国省级入境旅游经济增长空间关联性[J].地理科学,2017,37(11):1705-1711.

孙艳芝,鲁春霞,谢高地,等.北京城市发展与水资源利用关系分析[J].资源科学,2015,37(6):1124-1132.

叶懿安,朱继业,李升封,等.长三角城市工业碳排放及其经济增长关联性分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(3):257-262.

吴林海,彭宇文.农业科技投入与农业经济增长的动态关联性研究[J].农业技术经济,2013(12):87-93.

王余生.毕节试验区新一轮改革发展面临的矛盾与对策:以工业强区为例[J].毕节学院学报,2012,30(11):51-55.

王晋臣.毕节市现代化农业发展评价研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2014,35(5):88-94.

Views

1281

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Analysis of Growth Drags to Land and Water Resources in Urbanization——A Case Study of Xi'an City

Econometric Analysis on Relationship of Economic Growth and Eco-environment in Karamay City

Research on Driving Factors of Environment Pollution Based on Co-integration Analysis and Vector Autoregressive Model

Research on Relationship Between Urban Water Use and Economic Growth Based on Decoupling Analysis Theory

Decoupling Between Land Resource Utilization and Economic Growth in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

Related Author

XUE Keshe

DUAN Dongping

Mamuti

HALIDANMU·

YAN Shan

Simayi

Zibibula·

ZHOU Xuan-de

Related Institution

Department of Environmental Science, Northwestern University

School of Water Resources and Hydropower of Xinjiang

Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Ministry of Education

College of Resource and Environment Sciences, Xinjiang University

Colleges and universities in Henan Province of Agricultural Resources and Environmental Engineering Technology Research Center

⁰