[Objective] To reveal the status of land ecological security development in Qingtongxia City

and to provide scientific reference for land ecological security and its sustainable development in Qingtongxia City.[Methods] The land ecological security

safety grade and the main factors affecting the ecological security of the land were evaluated by using entropy weight method

PSR model

comprehensive index method

geography detector and the GM (1

1) forecasting model. And the land ecological condition in the next nine years was predicted.[Results] ① The comprehensive index of land ecological security in Qingtongxia City showed a rising trend after an initial decline during the study period. The land eco-safety index declined from 0.446 3 in 2006 to 0.419 1 in 2009 and the value of comprehensive evaluation of land ecological security in Qingtongxia City from 2009 to 2016 increased continually

it was 0.419 1 in 2009 and 0.505 1 in 2016. Though

its safety level varied around the critical safety

the overall level of land ecological security in Qingtongxia City was getting improved. ② Factors

including population density

amount of agricultural fertilizer used

amount of waste water

energy consumption per 10 000 yuan

amount of industrial solid waste generated

greening coverage of the built area

ratio of water conservancy and environmental protection facilities to GDP

etc. were determined as the main influencing factors of land ecological security in Qingtong Gorge. ③ The GM (1

1) forecast model was used to predict the level of ecological security development in the next nine years. The results showed that the level of land ecological security in the region would increase from 2017 to 2025

but the safety level is not high enough and still in the critical state

it need to be improved.[Conclusion] During the study period

the ecological security of Qingtongxia City changed obviously

but the trend was generally rise. The ecological security of land was obviously improved.