Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years

WAN Zhiwei; LIAN Licong; JIA Yulian; HONG Yijun; JIANG Meixin

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.003

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years

- Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 38, Issue 2, Pages: 14-18(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 江西师范大学地理与环境学院鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西,南昌,330022
  2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京,100101
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.003
  CLC：
- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
WAN Zhiwei, LIAN Licong, JIA Yulian, et al. Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(2): 14-18.
DOI：

WAN Zhiwei, LIAN Licong, JIA Yulian, et al. Trend Phases and Periodic Changes of Discharges from Yangtze River in Past 150 Years[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2018, 38(2): 14-18. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2018.02.003.

摘要

[目的

]

分析近150 a来长江入海流量变化的长期趋势、阶段性、突变性以及多尺度周期变化过程，为揭示长江入海流量的长期变化特征提供理论支撑。[方法

]

基于长江汉口站长时间实测水文数据，利用现代汉口站和大通站流量一元回归模型，恢复以长江大通站为代表的1865-2014年长江入海流量序列。综合利用多种方法开展多尺度分析。[结果

]

长江近150 a入海流量序列表明，平均值为29 432 m

/s，变异系数为14.72%。趋势分析表明，近150 a来长江入海流量呈现下降趋势，变化速率为-23.7 m

/（s·a）（p

0.01）。阶段性分析表明，长江入海流量变化具有一定的波动性特征，大体上以1955年为分界点，在1865-1955年为流量上升阶段，1955-2014年为流量下降阶段。突变性分析表明，长江入海流量在1940s发生了突变，由丰水期转变为枯水期。多尺度周期性分析表明，长江入海流量变化过程表现出明显的非线性和非平稳性，具有150和60 a的长期趋势，以及34，22，3~7 a的中高频振荡周期，其中22 a周期最为明显，可以通过99%置信度检验。[结论

]

近150 a来长江入海流量总体上呈下降趋势；其中自1955年以来长江入海流量处于一个显著的下降期；长江流域降水量变化是影响长江入海径流变化的重要因素。

Abstract

[Objective] The long-term trend

staged

abrupt

and multi-scale periodic variations of the discharge from the Yangtze River into the sea were analyzed in the past 150 years to provide theoretical support for revealing the long-term variation characteristics of the flow of the Yangtze River into the sea.[Methods] Based on the hydrological data of the Hankou station in the Yangtze River

this paper reconstructed the runoff series of the Datong Station

Yangtze River from 1865 to 2014

by using the regression model derived from Hankou station and Datong station

and made use of a variety of methods to carry out multi-scale analysis.[Results] The discharges from Yangtze River in nearly 150 years had an average flow of 29 432 m3/s

and had a coefficient of variation of 14.72%. The trend analysis showed that the discharges from Yangtze River in the past 150 years showed a decreasing trend with rate of -23.7 m3/(s·a)(p < 0.01) per year. Although

the periodic analysis showed that the change of the series had fluctuation characteristic. Two obvious different stages were recognized and it was separated at 1955. From 1865 to 1955

it was at a rising stage; from 1955 to 2014

it was at a descending stage. Abrupt analysis showed that the series had an abrupt point in 1940s

around which the water flow changed from wet period into dry term. The multi-scale periodic analysis showed that the series were obvious non-linear and nonstationary

with 150 years and 60 years of long-term trends

and with 34 years

22 years

3 to 7 years of high frequency oscillation cycles. Among of the cycles

the most obvious was 22-year one

which can be tested at 99% confidence level.[Conclusion] In the past 150 years

the flow of Yangtze River into the sea had been in a downward trend

especially since 1955

it declined significantly. The variation of precipitation in the Yangtze River basin was an important factor that affected the runoff in the Yangtze River.

关键词

Keywords

references

任美锷.中国自然地理纲要[M].北京:商务出版社,1999:1-430.

张瑞,汪亚平,潘少明.近50 a来长江入海径流量对太平洋年代际震荡变化的响应[J].海洋通报,2011,30(5):572-577.

刘嘉琦,龚政,张长宽.长江入海径流量突变性和趋势性分析[J].人民长江.2013,44(7):6-10.

梁川,侯小波,潘妮.长江源高寒区域降水和径流时空变化规律分析[J].南水北调与水利科技.2011,9(1):53-59.

夏雪瑾,徐健,冯文静,等.长江入海流量趋势及大通-徐六泾流量关系探讨[J].中国水运,2016,37(6):71-73.

张瑞,汪亚平,潘少明.近50年来长江入海径流量对太平洋年代际震荡变化的响应[J].海洋通报,2011,30(5):572-577.

魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007:1-190.

穆兴民,李靖,王飞,等.黄河天然径流量年际变化过程分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2003,17(2):1-5.

Mann M E, Lees J M. Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series[J]. Climatic Change, 1996,33(3):409-445.

Torrence C, Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1998,79(1):61-78.

Huang Norden E, Shen Zheng, Long Steven R, et al. The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis[J]. Proceedings Mathematical Physical & Engineering Sciences, 1998, 454(1971):903-995.

Wu Zhaohua, Huang Norden E. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition:A noise-assisted data analysis method[J]. Advances in Adaptive Data Analysis, 2009,1(1):1-41.

沈焕庭.长江河口物质通量[M].北京:海洋出版社,2001:39-80.

史卫东.水文资料系列的一致性分析[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2001,37(1):22-25.

燕然然,蔡晓斌,王学雷,等.三峡工程对下荆江径流变化影响分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(4):490-495.

刘嘉琦,龚政,张长宽.长江入海径流量突变性和趋势性分析[J].人民长江,2013,44(7):6-10.

秦年秀,姜彤,原峰.1990s长江下游干流径流量演变趋势[J].湖泊科学,2003,15(S1):138-146.

侯迎,郑芳,邵议.基于交叉小波的多尺度气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].水资源研究,2016,5(6):564-572.

曾小凡,翟建青,姜彤,等.长江流域年降水量的空间特征和演变规律分析[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2008,36(6):727-732.

Dai Zhijun, Du Jinzhou, Zhang Xiaoling, et al. Variation of riverine material loads and environmental consequences on the Changjiang estuary in recent decades(1955-2008)[J]. Environmental Science & Technology, 2011,45(1):223-227.

张晓娅,杨世伦.流域气候变化和人类活动对长江径流量影响的辨识(1956-2011)[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(12):1729-1739.

齐冬梅,李跃清,陈永仁,等.气候变化背景下长江源区径流变化特征及其成因分析[J].冰川冻土,2015,37(4):1075-1086.

时兴合,秦宁生,许维俊,等.1956-2004年长江源区河川径流量的变化特征[J].山地学报,2007,25(5):513-523.

Wang Houjie, Yang Zuosheng, Wang Yan, et al. Reconstruction of sediment flux from the Changjiang to the sea since the 1860s[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2008,349(3):318-332.

Views

940

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystem service value in typical estuarine deltas of China

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of coupling coordination development of county scal ecological-economic-social systems in Xizang

Spatiotemporal changes and driving mechanisms of vegetation cover in Dongting Lake area based on kNDVI and structural equation model

Impacts of seasonal drought on carbon-water coupling mechanism in China’s terrestrial ecosystems

Effects of land use and climate change on water-related ecosystem services in Hebei Province

Related Author

No data

Related Institution

No data

⁰