Land Use Change Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Haitan Island

YANG Yang; HUANG Yixiong; LI Xiao; GU Fan; GUO Jialei

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.06.024

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Land Use Change Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Haitan Island

- Land Use Change Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Haitan Island
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 37, Issue 6, Pages: 146-151(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建,福州,350007
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.06.024
  CLC：
- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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YANG Yang, HUANG Yixiong, LI Xiao, et al. Land Use Change Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Haitan Island[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(6): 146-151.
DOI：

YANG Yang, HUANG Yixiong, LI Xiao, et al. Land Use Change Simulation and Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Haitan Island[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(6): 146-151. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.06.024.

摘要

[目的]对海坛岛土地利用变化进行模拟与景观生态风险评价，为该岛的土地利用规划和政策制定提供理论依据。[方法]在福建省平潭县综合试验区规划建设的背景下，将Markov模型和CLUE-S模型相结合，模拟海坛岛2021年自然发展模式和城市规划发展模式下的土地利用空间分布格局，并用景观指数和景观生态风险指数对不同模式的景观格局进行分析。[结果]① 2021年的预测结果与2013年土地利用状况相比，在自然发展模式下森林、灌丛、湿地、农田分别减少了9.58%，5.53%，2.33%和8.82%。城市规划模式下分别减少了12.86%，6.16%，2.40%和11.67%；建筑用地面积自然发展模式下增加了24.56%；城市规划模式下增加了31.79%。②海坛岛的景观斑块破碎化程度日趋严重，森林、灌丛、湿地、农田、建设用地和未利用地的斑块数目均有不同程度的增加，景观面积百分比和景观形状指数上，森林、灌丛、湿地、农田均呈下降趋势，建设用地呈上升状态，未利用地变化不大。③海坛岛2013和2021年两种不同发展模式下的景观生态风险指数分别为0.334，0.337和0.351。[结论]海坛岛整体景观趋于破碎化和离散化，景观生态风险指数呈上升趋势，景观生态问题日渐严重。

Abstract

[Objective] Simulating the land use change and evaluating the landscape ecological risk of Haitan Island

to provide basis for land use planning and policy development.[Methods] Under the background of planning and constructing in Pingtan County Experimental Area in Fujian Province

this study combined the model of Markov model and the CLUE-S model to simulate spatial distribution pattern of land use in 2021

under the scenarios of either spontaneously developing pattern or rapid urbanization development. The possible evolved landscape patterns under different development scenarios were predicted by landscape index and landscape ecological risk index.[Results] ① The forecast results of 2021 are compared to the land use situation in 2013. The areas of forest

shrub

wetland

farmland decreased by 9.58%

5.53%

2.33%

8.82%

respectively under the scenario of spontaneous development mode; while

these items decreased by 12.86%

6.16%

2.40%

11.67% in the rapid urbanization development scenario. Construction land areas increased by 24.56% and 31.79% in scenarios of spontaneous development and rapid urban development. ② Haitan island landscape patch fragmentation will becoming increasingly serious. The numbers of plaques in forests

shrubs

wetlands

croplands

construction sites and unused land increased differently; the construction land will on the rise but the unused land might change little. ③ The landscape ecological risk indexes were 0.334

0.337

0.351 in 2013 and under different development models in 2021.[Conclusion] The whole landscape of Haitan Island tends to be broken and discretized. Landscape ecological risk index is on the rise and the degree of fragmentation of landscape patches is becoming more and more serious.

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