Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction

LI Peidu; SI Jianhua; FENG Qi; ZHAO Chunyan; WANG Chunlin

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.04.041

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Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction

- Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 37, Issue 4, Pages: 242-247(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院阿拉善荒漠生态水文试验研究站/内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室,甘肃,兰州,730000
  2. 中国科学院大学,北京,101408
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.04.041
  CLC：
- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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LI Peidu, SI Jianhua, FENG Qi, et al. Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(4): 242-247.
DOI：

LI Peidu, SI Jianhua, FENG Qi, et al. Analysis of Annual Runoff Characteristics of Yingluoxia Based on Wavelet Analysis and Gray Prediction[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(4): 242-247. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.04.041.

摘要

[目的

]

研究黑河莺落峡年径流量的变化规律及周期特征，为水量调配和水资源管理提供理论基础与科学依据。[方法

]

基于黑河莺落峡水文站1944-2014年径流量实测资料，采用Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变和灰色预测等方法分析了莺落峡流域径流变化趋势及其变化特征。[结果

]

莺落峡年径流量呈现微弱的增加趋势，年径流量距平百分率的倾向率为2.78%/10 a。在莺落峡流域径流小波方差分析图中，有4个较为明显的峰值，它们依次对应的时间尺度为43，56，12和9 a。43 a时间尺度对应的最大峰是莺落峡流域年径流变化的第一主周期。根据年径流主周期的循环交替特征推测，在2020年左右莺落峡流域处于丰水时期，年径流量预测为1.843×10

。[结论

]

莺落峡年径流量周期变化特征明显，径流量呈增加趋势。

Abstract

[Objective] The changing regularity and cycle characteristics of annual runoff of Yingluoxia in Heihe River was researched to provide theoretical and scientific bases for water allocation and water resources management.[Methods] Based on the measured data of runoff from Yingluoxia hydrological station in Heihe River basin during 1944 to 2014

Morlet wavelet analysis

Mann-Kendall mutation and gray prediction were used to analyze the trend of runoff and its variation characteristics.[Results] Yingluoxia annual runoff had a slight upward trend

the tendency of annual runoff anomaly percentage rate was 2.78%/10 a. Yingluoxia runoff wavelet variance figure had four obvious peaks

in turn corresponding to 43-year

56-year

12-year and 9-year time scales. Among them

the maximum peak is at 43-year time scale

and this is the first major cycle of runoff change. According to the cyclic alternation of main runoff

the Yingluo Gorge basin will be in the period of abundant water in 2020

and the annual runoff is predicted to be 1.843 billion m3.[Conclusion] The annual variation of runoff is obvious and the runoff is increasing in Yingluoxia basin.

关键词

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