Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model

HU Zongnan; LI Xin; LOU Shuyu; KANG Jianrong

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.04.036

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Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model

- Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 37, Issue 4, Pages: 211-218(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏,徐州,221116
  2. 江苏师范大学土地资源研究所,江苏,徐州,221116
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.04.036
  CLC：
- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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HU Zongnan, LI Xin, LOU Shuyu, et al. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(4): 211-218.
DOI：

HU Zongnan, LI Xin, LOU Shuyu, et al. Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use Structure of Yangzhou City Based on Systems Dynamics Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(4): 211-218. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.04.036.

摘要

[目的]对江苏省扬州市未来土地利用结构进行多情景预测模拟，并探索不同情景下各目标土地利用结构的实现路径，为土地利用规划方案制定与管理提供科学依据。[方法]采用系统动力学（SD）模型模拟土地利用系统开展研究。[结果]在不同情景下几类主要用地差异明显，耕地面积在耕地保护情景下较高，而在生态保护与经济发展情景下耕地缓慢下降；城镇工矿用地与交通水利用地面积在3种情景下均获得稳定增长，但经济发展情景下的增长快于其他2个情景；林地面积在生态保护情景下出现大幅上升，在另外2个情景下则基本保持不变甚至小幅下降。结合各情景指标设定可得出，耕地保护情景下，除控制城镇扩张占用耕地外，还要加强未利用地开发与农村居民点整理以补充耕地；生态保护情景下，则需加强植树造林、保护好具有丰富生态服务价值的水域、滩涂用地。[结论]SD模型不仅可模拟不同情景下土地利用变化，还可将土地利用与社会经济系统之间的复杂非线性关系显化，有利于土地资源可持续利用调控。

Abstract

[Objective] This manuscript aimed to simulate and forecast the land use structure under multiple development scenarios of Yangzhou City in Jiangsu Province

as well as to explore the paths to realize them

which were expected to provide considerable scientific references for land use planning and formulating.[Methods] The system dynamics(SD) model was used to simulate the land use system.[Results] The main land use types would vary under different scenarios. Under the protection of farmland scenario

the arable land area would increase; while under the ecological protection and economic development scenarios

the arable land would decline slowly. Either urban industrial and mining land

or land for traffic or water conservancy area would achieve stable growth in all three scenarios

but the growth in the economic development scenario would be quicker than that under the other two scenarios. The forest land area increase sharply under the scenario of ecological protection

but remain would not change or even decrease slightly in the other two scenarios. Under the scenario of farmland protection

urban expansion and the occupation of cultivated land should be under control. Besides that

unused land development and rural residential land consolidation should be strengthened to replenish cultivated land. In the ecological protection scenario

the ecological service value of waters

beaches should be protected. This might help to adjust industrial structure

and transform the traditional GDP to green GDP.[Conclusion] SD model can not only simulate the land use change under different scenarios

but also can reveal the complex nonlinear relationship between land use and socio-economic system

which is conducive to the sustainable use of land resources regulation.

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