Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin

WANG Xiyi; XU Hailiang; PAN Cunde

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.02.050

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Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin

- Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 37, Issue 2, Pages: 327-332(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 新疆农业大学草业与环境科学学院,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830052
  2. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆,乌鲁木齐,830011
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.02.050
  CLC：
- Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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WANG Xiyi, XU Hailiang, PAN Cunde. Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(2): 327-332.
DOI：

WANG Xiyi, XU Hailiang, PAN Cunde. Change Features of Cultivated Land Resources and Its Driving Factors in Tarim River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2017, 37(2): 327-332. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.02.050.

摘要

[目的

]

对塔里木河流域耕地面积动态变化特征及驱动因子进行分析，为实现区域内耕地保护与可持续利用提供理论依据。[方法

]

依据1990-2014年塔里木河“九源一干”区域各地州的统计资料，分析塔里木河流域耕地面积和重心的变化特点，将主成分分析与多元回归分析相结合，探讨耕地面积变化的驱动因子。[结果

]

（1）1990-2014年，耕地总面积由1.01×10

增加到2.05×10

，人均耕地面积由0.131 hm

增加到0.194 hm

，耕地面积重心向东偏北方向移动61.10 km；（2）社会经济发展、人口增加和农业生产发展是耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子；（3）建立了耕地面积与驱动因子之间的多元线性回归模型（R

=0.960），检验结果表明模拟值与实际值之间没有显著差异（p>0.05）。[结论

]

耕地的面积和重心始终处于一个动态变化的过程中，人文因素是影响耕地特征变化的主要原因。

Abstract

[Objective] Dynamic change features of agricultural area and the driving factors were elucidate to provide theoretical foundation for the sustainable utilization and protection of cultivated land in Tarim River basin. [Methods] Change characteristics of agricultural area and superficial orthocenter were analyzed according to the statistical data of all regions

including so-called“nine sources and one main stream”. Both PCA and multivariate regression analysis were used to detect the driving factors. [Results] (1) Total cultivated area from 1.01×106 hm2 to 2.05×106 hm2

from 0.131 hm2 to 0.194 hm2 for each person. Orthocenter of the agricultural area moved northeastward with a distance about 61.10 km. (2) Three main factors as socioeconomic development

increase in population and development of agricultural production drove the changes of agricultural area. (3) The established multi-linear regression model (R2=0.960) between agricultural area and driving factors showed that there was no significant difference(p>0.05) between the simulated values and the actual values. [Conclusion] It was always in a dynamically changing status for agricultural area and orthocenter. Human factors were the major influencing cause of the cultivated land.

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references

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