Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010

TONG Siqin; LIU Guixiang; WU Na

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.05.059

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Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010

- Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 36, Issue 5, Pages: 340-345(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 东北师范大学环境学院自然灾害研究所,吉林,长春,130024
  2. 内蒙古师范大学地理科学学院,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010010
  3. 中国农业科学院草原研究所,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010010
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.05.059
  CLC：
- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
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TONG Siqin, LIU Guixiang, WU Na. Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(5): 340-345.
DOI：

TONG Siqin, LIU Guixiang, WU Na. Temporal-spatial Changes of Temperature and Precipitation in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(5): 340-345. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.05.059.

摘要

[目的] 分析内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟气温和降水量时空变化规律，为草原区环境演化提供科学支撑，同时也对气温和降水的短期预警提供依据。[方法] 利用研究区境内15个气象站点1961-2010年的逐月平均气温和月降水资料，结合一元线性回归分析、趋势分析、MK突变检验以及Morlet小波分析方法，分析近50 a来锡林郭勒地区气温和降水时空变化特征及周期。[结果] 近50 a来锡林郭勒地区气温以0.44℃/10 a的速率呈显著上升趋势，其中冬季温度上升最明显；年均气温有较明显的突变特征，突变点出现在1991年，突变前后2个时段平均气温相差1.32℃；存在28，9和5 a的周期律，未来几年仍处于暖期。降水呈波动下降趋势，速率为3.9 mm/10 a，夏季降水下降最明显；年降水量没有明显的突变点，存在25和7 a的震荡周期，未来几年仍处于少雨阶段。[结论] 近50 a来锡林郭勒盟地区气候呈明显干旱化趋势。

Abstract

[Objective] This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and precipitation in Xilingol League of Inner Mongolia

in order to provide a scientific support for environmental evolution and early warning of temperature and precipitation change in this area.[Methods] We collected monthly mean air temperature and precipitation data of 15 meteorological site in Xilingol League from 1961 to 2010. The unitary linear recursive analysis

linear trend analysis

Mann-Kendall test and Morlet wavelet methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of climate change.[Results] The annual mean temperature demonstrated a significant increasing trend during the past 50 years at a rate of 0.44℃/10 a. The increase of temperature in winter was the greatest with an increasing rate of 0.52℃/10 a. The annual mean temperature changed abruptly in 1991

and there was a 1.32℃ temperature difference before and after this abrupt change. There were significant cyclical changes at 28 a

9 a and 5 a periods

and it is still in warm period in the next few years. Annual precipitation showed a downward trend from 1961 to 2010 at a rate of 3.9 mm/10 a

and it is most obvious in summer. There were significant cyclical changes at 25 and 7 years period with no obvious abrupt change point

and it is still in the stage of little rain in the next few years.[Conclusion] The climate of Xilingol League showed a trend of drought during the past 50 years.

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