[Objective] The grain production status in Shandong Province during 1994-2014 and the food security during 2015-2025 were studied to provide scientific basis for making reasonable production planning and agricultural economic policy. [Methods] Models of the cultivated land pressure index based on minimum per capita arable land area

logistic population prediction model and grey model〔GM(1

1)〕 were used to carry out the research. [Results] (1) The cultivated land pressure index was greater than 1 in many years during 1994-2014 in Shandong Province

implying that a state of food insecurity existed. (2) Cultivated land pressure index in 1994-2014 showed a slow periodical upward trend with a 4~5 a cycle. (3) In the next 10 years

grain output and total population will present a growth trend; while indices of arable land

arable land per capita

the minimum per capita cultivated land area and cultivated land pressure index are predicted having a downward trend. And the cultivated land pressure index value will be less than 1 in most years. [Conclusion] Through expanding food economy

grain production and food supply will be in a safe state in the next 10 a in Shandong Province.