[Objects] Carbon emission and carbon footprint of He'nan Province were predicted in order to understand the potential of carbon emission reduction in the future and to find low-carbon development strategies. [Methods] Based on the provincial level

taking He'nan Province as an example

this paper analyzed the carbon budget and carbon footprint of He'nan Province

and predicted the carbon emission peak value by STIRPAT model and scenario analysis approach. [Results] (1) The total amount of carbon emissions in He'nan Province increased from 6.83×107 t in 2000 to 1.77×108 t in 2012 with the increasing rate of 159.2%. The carbon emissions were quite different among different industries

in which

the manufacturing industries contributed the most of total carbon emission. The increasing rate of different types of carbon emissions were obviously different from each other. The carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems of He'nan Province decreased since 2000. (2) The carbon footprint of energy consumption of He'nan Province increased from 1.71×107 hm2 in 2000 to 4.42×107 hm2 in 2012. The expansion of carbon footprint caused the ecological deficit of 1.68×108 hm2. (3) Carbon emissions will reach to its peak value in 2040 or 2035 under benchmark or low-carbon scenario

respectively. If the regional carbon compensation was considered

peak values of carbon emissions under benchmark and low-carbon scenario will arrive in advance

in 2035 and 2025

respectively. [Conclusions] The carbon sinks of He'nan Province do not match carbon emissions. If carbon compensation is applied

there is huge room for carbon emission reduction in the future.