Critical Rainfall Inducing Flood Disaster of Nyang River Based on HBV Model

LIN Zhiqiang; HONG Jianchang; NI Maji; LU Hongya

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.04.004

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Critical Rainfall Inducing Flood Disaster of Nyang River Based on HBV Model

- Critical Rainfall Inducing Flood Disaster of Nyang River Based on HBV Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 36, Issue 4, Pages: 22-26(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  西藏自治区气候中心,西藏,拉萨,850000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.04.004
  CLC：
- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
LIN Zhiqiang, HONG Jianchang, NI Maji, et al. Critical Rainfall Inducing Flood Disaster of Nyang River Based on HBV Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(4): 22-26.
DOI：

LIN Zhiqiang, HONG Jianchang, NI Maji, et al. Critical Rainfall Inducing Flood Disaster of Nyang River Based on HBV Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(4): 22-26. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.04.004.

摘要

[目的] 建立工布江达以上尼洋曲流域的降水-径流关系，构建该流域的致洪临界雨量指标，以期为开展山洪气象预警工作提供参考。[方法] 根据流域暴雨洪水致灾机制，利用地面气象观测和CMORPH资料，基于HBV水文模型进行计算分析。[结果] 利用2007-2011年观测数据对HBV水文模型的参数优化和率定，模拟数据与观测数据的确定性系数为0.91，NASH效率系数为0.89；采用2012-2014年观测数据进行验证，确定性系数为0.86，NASH效率系数为0.85，率定期和验证期的平均相对误差均为3.1%，表明经过率定的HBV模型对尼洋曲上游流域具有较好的适用性。[结论] 尼洋曲流域的洪水过程不仅与实时降水的面雨量有关，还与前期基础水位有关，致灾临界面雨量随前期基础水位升高而减小，并且随着前期水位的变化，临界雨量值呈现了非线性响应特征。

Abstract

[Objective] This paper studied the relationship between rainfall and runoff over upper Nyang river above Gongbo-gyamda Hydrological station to find the critical rainfall that will result to flood. We expected to provide reference for the meteorology pre-warning of mountain torrents. [Methods] Data of ground meteorological observation and CMORPH were used. The upper Nyang river watershed of the hazard critical rainfall was obtained according to the HBV rainfall-runoff model. [Results] After parameter optimization and calibration

the HBV model had a certainty coefficient of 0.91 and NASH efficiency coefficient of 0.89 in the phase of calibration during 2007-2011. Model was validated using the data of 2012-2014

in this phase

certainty factor was 0.86 and NASH efficiency was 0.85. For both the phases of calibration and validating

relative error was averaged as 3.1 %

which implied that the model was applicable. [Conclusion] The flood process in Nyang river basin was not only related to the rainfall in whole basin

but also to the previous water level. The critical rainfall of flood inducement decreased with the increase of previous water level

and vice versa. The critical rainfall showed a nonlinear responsive characteristics.

关键词

Keywords

references

关志华,陈传友.西藏河流水资源[J].资源科学,1980,2(2):25-35.

温克刚,刘光轩.中国气象灾害大典(西藏卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008.

林志强,德庆,文胜军,等.西藏高原汛期大到暴雨的时空分布和环流特征[J].暴雨灾害,2014,33(1):73-79.

杜军,路红亚,建军.1961-2012年西藏极端降水事件的变化[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(6):990-1002.

叶金印,李致家,常露.基于动态临界雨量的山洪预警方法研究与应用[J].气象,2014,40(1):101-107.

郑芳,蔡建军.蔡家川.流域降雨-径流关系及水量平衡分析[J].水土保持通报,2012,32(1):71-76.

卢燕宇,田红.基于HBV模型的淮河流域洪水致灾临界雨量研究[J].气象,2015,41(6):755-760.

王秀丽,范世东,黄继刚,等.西藏尼洋曲流域考察报告[J].西藏科技,1996,22(2):10-16.

宋善允,王鹏祥,杜军,等.西藏气候[M].北京:气象出版社,2013.

成璐,沈润平,师春香,等. CMORPH和TRMM3 B42降水估计产品的评估检验[J].气象,2014,40(11):1372-1379.

Bergstorm S. Development and application of a conceptual runoff model for Scandinavian catchment [M]. Norrkoping: University of Lurd, 1976.

张亚杰,吴慧,吴胜安,等.南渡江流域暴雨洪涝致灾临界面雨量的确定[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):731-740.

刘绿柳,姜彤,徐金阁,等.21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(1):28-34.

刘绿柳,姜彤,徐金阁,等.西江流域水文过程的多气候模式多情景研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(12):1413-1421.

高超,刘青,苏布达,等.不同尺度和数据基础的水文模型适用性评估研究:淮河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(10):1765-177.

张建新,赵孟芹,章树安,等. HBV模型在中国东北多冰雪地区的应用研究[J].水文,2007,27(4):31-34.

王有恒,谭丹,景元书.HBV水文预报模型在白龙江流域的应用研究[J].水土保持通报,2015,35(3):218-221.

樊静,江远安,陈颖,等.基于HBV模型的开都河致灾洪水临界雨量分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2014,8(6):31-35.

刘义花,鲁延荣,周强,等.HBV水文模型在玉树巴塘河流域洪水临界雨量阈值研究中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(2):224-228.

Views

1469

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Risk Evaluation of Flood Disasters in Henan Province Based on GIS

Application of HBV Model in Determination of Critical Catastrophic Surface Rainfall in Fuchunjiang Reservoir Basin

Runoff and sediment yield characteristics of typical soil slopes in Xin’an River basin under different rainfall intensities and slope gradients

Spatiotemporal evolution and multi-scenario simulation of carbon storage in Pingxiang City， Jiangxi Province based on PLUS-InVEST model

Effects of vegetation restoration duration on runoff and sediment yield in slopes of waste dumps in alpine mining areas

Related Author

LIU De-lin

PAN Yaying

MA Delian

ZHANG Qing

WANG Yanan

LUO Yuezhen

Related Institution

Safety and Emergency Management Research Center, Henan Polytechnic University

Emergency Management School, Henan Polytechnic University

Zhejiang Meteorological Service Center

Zhejiang Shanxi Economic Development Co. Ltd.

⁰