Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

ZHENG Huawei; XIA Menglei; ZHANG Rui; LIU Youzhao

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.03.049

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

- Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 36, Issue 3, Pages: 284-289(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南京农业大学农村发展学院,江苏,南京,210095
  2. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏,南京,210095
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.03.049
  CLC：
- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
ZHENG Huawei, XIA Menglei, ZHANG Rui, et al. Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(3): 284-289.
DOI：

ZHENG Huawei, XIA Menglei, ZHANG Rui, et al. Diagnosis on Ecological Security of Cultivated Land Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(3): 284-289. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.03.049.

摘要

［目的］弥补已有耕地生态安全诊断中指标体系及评价方法的不足，分析耕地生态安全水平。［方法］在界定耕地生态安全内涵的基础上，构建了基于PSR模型的评价指标体系，采用熵值法和灰色预测模型，对四川省耕地生态安全水平进行了诊断。［结果］ 1999-2013年四川省耕地生态安全水平总体不断提高，耕地生态安全等级经历了“临界安全-较安全”的演变历程，但2013年“较安全”水平不高；压力指数总体上呈现下降趋势，状态指数呈现波动下降趋势，响应指数呈现上升趋势；单位耕地化肥负荷、人均耕地面积、单位耕地农药负荷、土地垦殖率、水土流失程度等是耕地生态安全等级提升的关键制约因素；2014-2018年四川省耕地生态安全水平呈现稳步上升趋势。［结论］基于PSR模型的评价指标体系能更准确地反映耕地生态安全各要素之间的关系；熵值法和灰色预测模型能有效挖掘耕地生态安全存在的问题，适合用于耕地生态安全评价。

Abstract

[Objective] To compensate for the defects in the evaluation index system and the used methods in the diagnosis on the cultivated land ecological security in order to analyze the ecological security level of cultivated land.[Methods] On the basis of defining the cultivated land ecological security

the evaluation index system for cultivated land ecological security was developed using the PSR(pressure-state-response) model

and then an empirical analysis was conducted in Sichuan Province by entropy method and grey prediction model.[Results] The ecological security of cultivated land in Sichuan Province was gradually improved from critically safe to safer level from 1999 to 2013

but the level of "safer" was not high in 2013. The pressure index and status index generally showed a downward trend

while the response indexes showed a upward trend. Crucial constraints on the improvement of cultivated land ecological security include fertilizer load per unit of cultivated land

cultivated land per capita

pesticides load per unit of cultivated land

land reclamation rate and soil erosion. The ecological security level of cultivated land in Sichuan Province would show a steady upward trend from 2014 to 2018.[Conclusion] These methods are suitable in the evaluation of cultivated land ecological security because the evaluation index system based on the PSR model can accurately reflect the relationship among various elements of the cultivated land ecological security

while the entropy method and grey prediction model can detect the problems in the cultivated land ecological security.

关键词

Keywords

references

王千,金晓斌,周寅康,等.河北省耕地生态经济系统能值指标空间分布差异及其动因[J].生态学报,2011,31(1):247-256.

张锐,刘友兆.我国耕地生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(7):945-951.

王千,金晓斌,周寅康.河北省耕地生态安全及空间聚集格局[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(8):338-344.

孟展,张锐,刘友兆,等.基于熵值法和灰色预测模型的土地生态系统健康评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(4):226-231.

孙丕苓,杨海娟,刘庆果.南水北调重要水源地的土地生态安全动态研究[J].自然资源学报,2012,27(9):1520-1530.

吴大放,刘艳艳,刘毅华,等.耕地生态安全评价研究展望[J].中国生态农业学报,2015,23(3):257-267.

Rasul G, Thapa G. Sustainability analysis of ecological and conventional agricultural systems in Bangladesh[J]. World Development, 2003,31(6):1721-1741.

Mark C O, Kenneth K A, Felicitas U I. Natural radioactivity in cultivated land in the vicinity of a phosphate fertilizer plant in Nigeria[J]. Radiation Physics and Chemistry, 2012(81):1823-1826.

乌云嘎,聂艳,罗毅,等.湖北省耕地生态安全时空演变特征研究[J].江汉大学学报:自然科学版,2015,43(4):317-322.

谭术魁,崔迪,李雅楠.基于物元可拓模型的湖北省耕地生态安全评价[J].中国房地产,2015(24):43-52.

张冰洁,宋戈.松嫩高平原黑土区典型地域耕地生态安全评价及驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2012,19(3):215-220.

任平,洪步庭,周介铭.长江上游农业主产区耕地生态安全评价与空间特征研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013,23(12):65-69.

赵文晖,杨伟州,王利香,等.基于可拓优度评价模型的耕地生态安全评价[J].河南农业科学,2015,44(2):60-65.

郭锐利,郑钦玉,刘娟,等.基于熵值法和GM(1,1)模型的重庆城市生态系统健康评价[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(6):1148-1152.

张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于熵权可拓物元模型的耕地生态安全评价[J].水土保持通报,2013,33(4):149-154.

唐秀美,陈百明,路庆斌,等.基于生态适宜性评价的耕地生态系统服务价值变化研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2011,32(6):39-42.

Walz R. Development of Environmental Indicator Systems: Experiences from Germany[J]. Environmental Management, 2000,25(6):613-623.

张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于压力-状态-响应模型与集对分析的土地利用系统健康评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(5):146-152.

谢花林,刘曲,姚冠荣,等.基于PSR模型的区域土地利用可持续性水平测度[J].资源科学,2015,37(3):449-457.

张锐,郑华伟,刘友兆.基于PSR模型的耕地生态安全物元分析评价[J].生态学报,2013,33(16):5090-5100.

郑华伟,张俊凤,刘友兆.基于熵权可拓物元模型的农村土地整理项目绩效评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(6):193-200.

张锐,刘友兆,丑建立.中国土地利用系统健康动态评价[J].水土保持通报,2014,34(2):197-203.

周瑞平. GM(1,1)模型灰色预测法预测城市人口规模[J].内蒙古师范大学学报:自然科学汉文版,2005,34(1):81-83.

戴亚南,贺新光.长株潭地区生态可持续性[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):595-602.

Views

1192

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Dynamic Evaluation of Health of Land Use System in China

Evaluation on resilience of cultivated land and management in agro-pastoral ecotone of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region

Evaluation of Land Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

Reflection on Construction of Soil and Water Conservation Monitoring Stations in Sichuan Province

Ecological Security Evaluation Based on PSR Model for Shengzhong Reservoir in Sichuan Province

Related Author

LIU You-zhao

CHOU Jian-li

Yang Xia

Jin Zhikun

Yan Jiani

Zhao Huafu

MENG Zhan

QIAN Xu

Related Institution

China Building Materials Industrial Geological Exploration Center， Shaanxi Branch

College of Desert Control Science and Engineering， Inner Mongolia Agricultural University

School of Land Science and Technology， China University of Geosciences Beijing

The Land Science Society of Jiangsu Province

Jiangsu Real Estate Development Center

⁰