Probability Distribution Model and its Application on Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin

LU Miao; GAO Chao; YAO Mengting; SU Buda; XU Guanglai

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.02.038

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Probability Distribution Model and its Application on Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin

- Probability Distribution Model and its Application on Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 36, Issue 2, Pages: 197-203(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院,安徽,芜湖,241000
  2. 安徽自然灾害过程与防控研究省级实验室,安徽,芜湖,241000
  3. 安徽师范大学江淮流域气候变化与水资源研究中心,安徽,芜湖,241000
  4. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京,100081
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.02.038
  CLC：
- Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
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LU Miao, GAO Chao, YAO Mengting, et al. Probability Distribution Model and its Application on Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(2): 197-203.
DOI：

LU Miao, GAO Chao, YAO Mengting, et al. Probability Distribution Model and its Application on Extreme Precipitation in Huaihe River Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2016, 36(2): 197-203. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2016.02.038.

摘要

[目的] 研究淮河流域极端降水最优概率分布模型

旨在为洪水计算规范修改和调整提供参考。[方法] 基于淮河流域110个气象站点1959-2008年的日降水资料

通过年最大值法(AM)及超门限峰法(POT)分别建立极端降水AM及POT序列

比较两者捕捉极端降水的适用性

建立淮河流域极端降水最优概率分布模型

并对其应用进行探讨。[结果](1) 在研究流域极端降水空间分布上

POT序列适用性更强

能较好捕捉降水极值。在研究极端降水时间变化上

AM序列更合理;(2) 经K-S法检验

Wakeby函数是AM及POT序列的最优概率分布模型

优于水利工程标准曲线PearsonⅢ函数

且Wakeby函数的中部拟合效果比尾部更优。[结论] 最优概率分布模型在气候变化的研究中得到较好地应用

近25 a来淮河流域极端降水强度呈增长趋势

且频率增大

需加强对该流域极端降水灾害的防治减灾工作。

Abstract

[Objective] Studying the optimal probability distribution model of extreme precipitation in order to provide basis for the standard modification of flood calculation method. [Methods] Based on the daily precipitation data from 110 meteorological stations during 1959-2008 in the Huaihe River basin

annual maximum series(AM) and peak over threshold series(POT) were established to compare the applicability of them. The optimal probability distribution models of extreme precipitation for AM and POT were established and the applications were discussed. [Results] In the study of spatial distribution of extreme precipitation

POT was proved to be more reasonable than AM. In dealing with temporal sequence

AM was more reasonable. Checked by K-S method

Wakeby was the optimal function for the two kinds of series. The estimation accuracy of Wakeby was higher than the performance of Pearson Ⅲ

which is regarded as the standard frequency curve in the water conservancy project; especially

the middle part of Wakeby fitted better than its tail did. [Conclusion] The probability distribution model can get a better application in the climate change. The extreme precipitation showed an increasing trend during 1984-2008 and the frequency is increasing. The government needs to take some measures to deal with extreme precipitation disasters.

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references

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