ZHANG Leqin. A Study on Prospect of Urbanization Influence on Cultivated Land Resources in Anhui Province Based on Combined Forecasting Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(5): 144-148.
DOI:
ZHANG Leqin. A Study on Prospect of Urbanization Influence on Cultivated Land Resources in Anhui Province Based on Combined Forecasting Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(5): 144-148. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.05.092.
A Study on Prospect of Urbanization Influence on Cultivated Land Resources in Anhui Province Based on Combined Forecasting Model
[Objective] This study explored the influences of urbanization on the cultivated land resources in Anhui Province in order to provide theoretical base for policy making in urbanization development and cultivated land protection.[Methods] The reduced area of cultivated land caused by urbanization was calculated by using the logarithmic mean divisia index(LMDI) decomposition method. By using SPSS software
the coupling functional relationship between urbanization and the decline in cultivated land area was investigated by curve estimation based on the optimum goodness of fit. According to the Logistic regression model
the evolution trend of urbanization in Anhui Province was predicted. Moreover
based on the obtained coupling relationship between urbanization and cultivated land resources as well as the evolution trend of urbanization
the impacts of urbanization on the cultivated lands were estimated.[Results] The results indicated that
during the period from 1996 to 2011
the area of cultivated land reduced at a rate of approximately 1097.87 hm2 per year due to the urbanization in Anhui Province
and every 1% increase in urbanization rate resulted in 795.20 hm2 decline in the area of cultivated land. The quadratic curve fitting was optimal for describing the relationship between urbanization and the cultivated land resources. The urbanization of the population in Anhui Province was expected to reach to 58.44% and 68.25% in 2020 and 2030
respectively. Specifically
before 2020
due to the effects of urbanization
the cultivated lands were expected to reduced by 3804.94 hm2 per year
and every 1% increase in urbanization rate would result in 2549.37 hm2 decline in cultivated land area. From 2021 to 2030
the cultivated lands were expected to be reduced by 11179.42 hm2 per year
and every 1% increase in urbanization rate would result in 11395.94 hm2 decline in cultivated land area.[Conclusion] The impacts of the urbanization on cultivated land are expected to be intensified
and the protection of cultivated land will be a great challenge in the future.