[Objective] The characteristics of grain production and land carrying capacity in Hubei Province from 1949 to 2012 were analyzed in order to provide theoretical support for decision-making and overall planning in land resources use and population sustainable development.[Methods] Relative fluctuation index

land resources carrying capacity(LCC) model and land resource carrying capacity index(LCCI) model were introduced to evaluate the grain production and the spatial pattern of land carrying capacity.[Results] (1) During 1949-2012

there were six stages in the development of annual grain production in Hubei Province. Grain production showed an upward tendency with periodic fluctuations caused by natural disasters and policy.(2) The growth rate in population was less than that in grain yields. Per capita grain showed four obvious fluctuation periods.(3) Food deficits and overpopulation remained primary characteristics of land carrying capacity in Hubei Province in 2012. The grain surplus areas were located in the middle part of Hubei Province

while the overpopulated areas were located in the western mountainous region and southeast of Wuhan urban circle.[Conclusion] Protecting arable land

developing science and technology

increasing yield per unit area

expanding the scale of production

and implementing sound policy is essential to the sustainable development of agriculture in Hubei Province.