MA Menghua, SONG Wenbo, DING Yanxi, et al. Research on Driving Factors of Environment Pollution Based on Co-integration Analysis and Vector Autoregressive Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(3): 162-167.
DOI:
MA Menghua, SONG Wenbo, DING Yanxi, et al. Research on Driving Factors of Environment Pollution Based on Co-integration Analysis and Vector Autoregressive Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(3): 162-167. DOI: 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.03.036.
Research on Driving Factors of Environment Pollution Based on Co-integration Analysis and Vector Autoregressive Model
[Objective] To analyze the driving mechanism of environmental pollution
and privide support for economic derelopment and enviromental planning in Henan Province. [Methods] To interpret the dynamic changes in the environmental pollution of He'nan Province and its relationships with some driving forces based on co-integration analysis
error-correct model
impulse response function
and variance decomposition. [Results] Over all
environmental pollution had long-term co-integration relationship with GDP per capita
proportion of secondary industry
total population
foreign direct investment and government regulation
and the error correction mechanism existed. The impulse response analysis showed that GDP per capita
proportion of secondary industry and total population aggravated environmental pollution
while foreign direct investment had slightly positive impacts and government regulation has insignificant effects. According to the results of variance decomposition
total population was the most important factor for environmental pollution
followed by proportion of secondary industry and GDP per capita. [Conclusion] Rationalizing the population distribution and optimizing industrial structure is the future development orientation for environment pollution control.
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