Simulation and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Based on ARIMA Model

DONG Xiaoxiao; LI Yuhuan; WANG Jing; CHEN Yuqi

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.01.027

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Simulation and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Based on ARIMA Model

- Simulation and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Based on ARIMA Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 35, Issue 1, Pages: 143-147(2015)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 山东农业大学资源与环境学院,山东,泰安,271018
  2. 中国土地勘测规划院土地利用重点实验室,北京,100035
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.01.027
  CLC：
- Published：2015
- 稿件说明：
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DONG Xiaoxiao, LI Yuhuan, WANG Jing, et al. Simulation and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Based on ARIMA Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(1): 143-147.
DOI：

DONG Xiaoxiao, LI Yuhuan, WANG Jing, et al. Simulation and Prediction of Ecological Footprint Based on ARIMA Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2015, 35(1): 143-147. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2015.01.027.

摘要

[目的] 将现代计量学上普遍应用的自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model

ARIMA)引入生态足迹分析

寻求动态预测结果。[方法] 以山东省济宁市微山县为案例

对其1995-2010年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行估算

预测该县2010-2015年的生态足迹和生态承载力变化趋势。[结果] 2011与2012年真实数据检验结果显示

ARIMA模拟模型的预测误差仅为6.12%和4.89%。[结论] 基于ARIMA的生态足迹动态模拟模型具有较高的准确性和适用性。

Abstract

[Objective] To apply the autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA) that had been generally used in the modern metrology to ecological footprint analysis.[Methods] Taking Weishan County in Shandong Province as the study area

the per capita ecological footprint and the per capita ecological carrying capacity from 1995 to 2010 were computed firstly

then the trend of per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological carrying capacity from 2011 to 2012 were forecasted based on the computed results.[Results] Tested by the actual data in 2011 and 2012

the prediction error of ARIMA model was only 6.12% and 4.89%.[Conclusion] The ARIMA model had high accuracy and good applicability in the prediction of ecological footprint.

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references

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