Evaluation of Land Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

MENG Zhan; ZHANG Rui; LIU You-zhao; QIAN Xu

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.04.058

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Evaluation of Land Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model

- Evaluation of Land Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 33, Issue 4, Pages: 226-231(2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏,南京,210095
  2. 江苏省地产发展中心,江苏,南京,210017
  3. 江苏省土地学会,江苏,南京,210017
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.04.058
  CLC：
- Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
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MENG Zhan, ZHANG Rui, LIU You-zhao, et al. Evaluation of Land Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2014, 33(4): 226-231.
DOI：

MENG Zhan, ZHANG Rui, LIU You-zhao, et al. Evaluation of Land Ecosystem Health Based on Entropy Method and Grey Prediction Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2014, 33(4): 226-231. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.04.058.

摘要

在界定土地生态系统健康内涵的基础上

构建了基于"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型的评价指标体系

采用熵值法和灰色预测模型

对四川省土地生态系统健康状况进行了评价。研究结果表明:(1) 1999-2010年四川省土地生态系统健康水平总体不断提高

综合指数从0.481 3增加到0.637 2

健康等级经历了"临界状态-亚健康"的演变过程;(2) 压力指数和状态指数总体上呈现下降趋势

响应指数总体上呈现上升趋势;(3) 人均耕地面积、土地垦殖率、水土流失程度、单位耕地化肥负荷、单位耕地农药负荷等是土地生态系统健康等级提升的关键制约因素;(4) 2011-2015年四川省土地生态系统健康水平呈现稳步上升趋势

年均增长率为2.86%。

Abstract

On the basis of defining the meaning of land ecosystem health

the evaluation index system for land ecosystem health was constructed based on the PSR(press-state-response)model

then an empirical analysis was conducted in Sichuan Province by entropy method and grey prediction model. The results showed that:(1) The level of land ecosystem health had been gradually improved in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2010

with the index increasing from 0.481 3 to 0.637 2. The degree of land ecosystem health generally experienced two stages

i.e.

critical state and sub-health.(2) The pressure index and status index showed a downward trend

while response index

a rising trend.(3) The cultivated land per capita

land reclamation rate

extent of soil erosion

the pesticide load and fertilizer load per unit of cultivated land were verified to be the key constraints for further improvement of land ecosystem health.(4) The level of land ecosystem health showed a steady upward trend in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2015

and the average annual growth rate reached 2.86%.

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