The seasonal and annual variation characteristics of air temperature and precipitation as well as runoff-yield in the upstream area of Shule River were analyzed based on meteorological and hydrological data during 1961-2010 by using Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis. Linear multi-regression of monthly runoff model was used to evaluate effects of temperature and precipitation in runoff-yield. The results showed that the annual mean temperature had risen very significantly with very strong persistency since 1960s. It is low from 1960s to 1970s and increased fast after 1986. The climatic warming had accelerated after temperature mutation in 1990. The annual precipitation presented a very significantly increasing tendency with strong persistency in the studied period and the fluctuation of annual precipitation was quite obvious. It experienced a changing trend that was lower(the 1960s and 1970s)-higher(the 1980s)-lower(the 1990s)-higher(after 2000). The strong signals of climatic shift to warm humid pattern appeared since mid-1980s and runoff-yield increased very significantly due to climatic mutation. The annual and seasonal variation characteristics of runoff-yield were consistent with precipitation. The runoff-yield was mainly affected by underground water in winter and autumn

and was controlled by precipitation and ice-snow melt water in spring and summer.