Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model

ZOU Qiang; WANG Qing; LIU Yan-guo

doi:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036

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Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model

- Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 33, Issue 3, Pages: 185-189(2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西南科技大学环境与资源学院,四川,绵阳,621010
  2. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,四川,成都,610041
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036
  CLC：
- Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
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ZOU Qiang, WANG Qing, LIU Yan-guo. Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2014, 33(3): 185-189.
DOI：

ZOU Qiang, WANG Qing, LIU Yan-guo. Evaluation Method of Debris-flow Susceptibility Using GIS and Logistic Model[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2014, 33(3): 185-189. DOI： 10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2014.03.036.

摘要

分析了泥石流形成与演化的物质条件、能量条件和环境条件。选取坡度、高程、坡面粗糙度、地层岩性、距断裂距离、地震烈度、土地利用类型作为泥石流易发性评价因子

引入Logistic回归分析方法

建立了泥石流易发性分析模型。定量分析了G318川藏公路段泥石流易发性

结果表明

该公路全线大部分处于泥石流中高易发区

其中

高易发区与中易发区占总面积的78.61%

主要分布在大渡河、澜沧江、金沙江、怒江、帕隆藏布江等大江大河的峡谷区段

这些地区在公路修复和规划重建中应做好泥石流的预测、预报及防治。

Abstract

The formation conditions of debris flow were analyzed and the seven key indexes of hill slope

elevation

hill surface roughness

rock stratum

distance to faults

seismic intensity of earthquake and land use type were chosen for evaluating the susceptibility of debris flow. A model of debris flow susceptibility was established by introducing logistic regression

and the evaluation and mapping of debris flow susceptibility were completed for the highways. Subsequently

this proposed method was applied in a case study carried out on the Sichuan-Tibet section of national highway G318. Analysis of debris flow susceptibility for the whole highway showed that 78.61% of the total study area was situated in debris flow-prone areas

including the canyon areas of Dadu

Lanchang

Jinsha

Nu and Palongzangbu Rivers. It is suggested that sufficient attentions should be paid in debris flow forecast and prevention in road reconstruction and line selection for new highway.

关键词

Keywords

references

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