Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast

PENG Tao; XU Gang; XIA Daqing

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Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast

- Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 25, Issue 3, Pages: 104-108(2006)
- 作者机构：
  
  西南大学地理科学学院三峡库区生态环境教育部重点实验室, 重庆北碚,400715
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
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- Published：2006
- 稿件说明：
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PENG Tao, XU Gang, XIA Daqing. Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2006, 25(3): 104-108.
DOI：

PENG Tao, XU Gang, XIA Daqing. Occurrence of Slope Debris Flow as Self-organization Criticality and Its Prediction and Forecast[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2006, 25(3): 104-108. DOI：

摘要

坡面泥石流是山区常见的一种自然灾害。以重庆市北碚区为例

分析了坡面泥石流暴发的松散堆积物自组织临界特性

以及地貌和降雨量临界特性。从自组织临界的观点来看

坡面泥石流形成区各个子系统之间存在着非线性作用

使系统自然地朝着临界状态演化

在暴雨激发下

最终导致坡面泥石流的暴发。泥石流规模和频率存在着幂律关系

这是泥石流自组织临界状态的行为标志

并可对坡面泥石流的活动规律进行预测、预报。

Abstract

Slope debris flow is a natural hazard constantly observed in the mountain area. Taking the Beibei of Chongqing City as an example

the paper analyzes the self-organization criticality of solid loose materials

and the criticality of geomorphology and rainfall while slope debris flow occurs.From viewpoint of self-organization(criticality)

non-linear interaction exists between different subsystems in the formation of slope debris flow

and causes the system to develop naturally to a state of self-organization criticality.Under triggering by storm

slope debris flow occurs eventually.There exists a power correlation between its magnitude and frequency

which is a behavioral sign of debris flow as self-organization.In addition

occurrence law of slope debris flow can be predicted and forecasted through the power correlation.

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