Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin

LI Yan; LI Heng-peng

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Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin

- Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 26, Issue 5, Pages: 37-40(2007)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,江苏,南京,210008
  2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
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- Published：2007
- 稿件说明：
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LI Yan, LI Heng-peng. Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2007, 26(5): 37-40.
DOI：

LI Yan, LI Heng-peng. Hydrologic Effects of Landuse Change and Its Risk Evaluation in Taihu Basin[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2007, 26(5): 37-40. DOI：

摘要

以土地利用集约化程度高

城市化进程快的太湖流域为研究区

采用1985

2000年TM/ETM土地利用解译数据分析15a来土地利用变化特征。运用长周期水文分析模型L-THIA

基于流域各气象站1971-2000年共30a的日序列降水数据

计算1985

2000年这2个时段土地利用特征对地表径流的影响

评估土地利用变化的水文效应。研究结果表明

太湖流域土地利用变化主要表现为城镇扩展。全流域城镇扩展导致年平均地表径流增加1.14×10～8m～3

约为总径流量的2.9%。土地利用空间差异导致苏锡常区和浦东浦西区

分别增加了6.01%和3.91%。城市化高度发展的沪-苏锡常城市带

1985-2000年间城镇面积增加635.2 km～2

相应径流量增长6.5%。基于单元格网城市化水文效应风险评价结果显示

低、中、高风险区面积分别占评价区面积的37.5%

50%和12.5%。

Abstract

This paper takes Taihu Basin as a study area since it has highly intensive land use and is subject to rapid urbanization. Historical landuse scenarios in 1985 and 2000 are analyzed to track landuse changes by in-terpreting TM/ETM images. The L-THIA (Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment) model is applied to estimate hydrological effects of landuse changes from 1985 to 2000

based on daily precipitation records span-ning 30 years (1971-2000). Results show that the main trend of landuse change is the urban expansion in the basin

which results in an increase of runoff volume of 1.14×108m3

about 2.9% of the runoff volume from entire basin. Hydrological response varies with the extent of landuse changes in different parts of the basin. In Su-Xi-Chang and Pudong-Puxi sub-regions

with larger extent of landuse changes

the landuse changes result in runoff volume increases of 6.01% and 3.91%

respectively. In Hu-Su-Xi-Chang city zone

with intensive urbanization

the urban area expands as much as about 635.2 km2 and the runoff volume increases by 6.5%.Based on runoff simulation and hydrological risk evaluation

the low

middle

and high risk areas are identified

which account for 37.5%

50.0% and 12.5%

respectively.

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