Analysis and Forecast of the Carrying Capacity of Livestock-breeding Environment in Heilongjiang Province

WANG Yang; LI Cui-xia

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Analysis and Forecast of the Carrying Capacity of Livestock-breeding Environment in Heilongjiang Province

- Analysis and Forecast of the Carrying Capacity of Livestock-breeding Environment in Heilongjiang Province
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 28, Issue 1, Pages: 187-191(2009)
- 作者机构：
  
  东北农业大学经济管理学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150030
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- Published：2009
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WANG Yang, LI Cui-xia. Analysis and Forecast of the Carrying Capacity of Livestock-breeding Environment in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2009, 28(1): 187-191.
DOI：

WANG Yang, LI Cui-xia. Analysis and Forecast of the Carrying Capacity of Livestock-breeding Environment in Heilongjiang Province[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2009, 28(1): 187-191. DOI：

摘要

运用系统分析方法及灰色预测模型

对黑龙江省畜禽养殖环境承载能力进行了分析和预测。分析结果表明

目前黑龙江省畜禽养殖环境承载能力较强

但呈现明显的下降趋势。按目前的模式和速度发展

如不对畜禽排泄物进行任何处理

预测至2015年

黑龙江省畜禽养殖环境承载能力下降至警戒值以下;如果将70%的畜禽排泄物转化为能源、饲料、肥料等

预测黑龙江省畜禽养殖环境承载能力下降至警戒值以下的年份为2017年。因此

畜禽排泄物污染问题对于黑龙江省这样一个自然资源丰富的畜牧大省仍是一个必须重视的问题。

Abstract

Taking Heilongjiang Province for an example and using analysis model and grey forecast model

we analyze and forecast the carrying capacity of livestock-breeding environment.Some conclusions can be drawn as follows: The carrying capacity of livestock-breeding environment in the province is strong

but it has appeared a decreasing tendency.According to the present breeding model and the speed of development

the carrying capacity will be below the security line by 2015

if we do nothing for animal excrement.If we take some measures to change 70 percent of animal excrement into energy

feed and fertilizer

the carrying capacity will be below the security line by 2017.For Heilongjiang Province being a big livestock husbandry province with rich natural resources

we should still pay great attention to animal excrement pollution.

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