Frequency Forecast and Trend of Regional Landsl ides Based on Time Record

FAN Xiaoyi

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Frequency Forecast and Trend of Regional Landsl ides Based on Time Record

- Frequency Forecast and Trend of Regional Landsl ides Based on Time Record
- Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation Vol. 29, Issue 3, Pages: 92-95(2010)
- 作者机构：
  
  西南科技大学土木工程与建筑学院,四川,绵阳,621010
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- Published：2010
- 稿件说明：
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FAN Xiaoyi. Frequency Forecast and Trend of Regional Landsl ides Based on Time Record[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2010, 29(3): 92-95.
DOI：

FAN Xiaoyi. Frequency Forecast and Trend of Regional Landsl ides Based on Time Record[J]. Bulletin of Soiland Water Conservation, 2010, 29(3): 92-95. DOI：

摘要

区域滑坡危险度评价是区域滑坡防灾减灾的重要研究内容。基于区域滑坡过去一定时期的滑坡资料对未来一定时期的滑坡发生频度预测和趋势研究可为区域滑坡危险度进行动态评价。结合三峡库区万州区滑坡资料

对其进行时间记录分析

研究其不同面积等级不同时间范围的Hurst指数经验关系。分别建立了时间范围1980—1990年

1980—1995年和滑坡面积M>1000m

M>10000m

M>100000m

的Hurst指数经验关系。根据Hurst指数对其未来5a的滑坡频度的最大涨落范围进行预测。并分析时间相关函数与H值的函数关系

为滑坡发展趋势进行定量预测。研究表明

区域滑坡频度预测可为区域滑坡危险度进行动态评价。

Abstract

The risk degree assessment of regional landslide is a research topic important to the disaster prevention and landslide alleviation. According to the data of landslides

the future landslide frequency and it strend can be forecast and the forecast can dynamically evaluate the risk degree of regional landslides. Based on the landslide data in Wanzhou of the Three Gorges Reservoir area

the time records were analyzed and the Hurst index of the different regional ranks and time extensions was st udied. The experimental relationships of the Hurst indexes for the landslide areas of M > > 1 000 m2

M > > 10 000 m2

and M > 100 000 m2 in 1980 —1990 and 1980 —1995 were acquired respectively. According to the Hurst indexes

this method forecasted the maximum fluctuation of landslides in the future 5 years. The function relationship between time correlation and the Hurst indexes was st udied by Fractional Brownian Motion. The relationship forecasted quantitatively the development trend of regional landslides. It is showed that the frequency forecast of regional landslides can dynamically evaluate the risk degree of regional landslides.

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Related Author

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Related Institution

Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources, Yangling

Northwest A & F University, Yangling

Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Processes, Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences

University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences

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